1. Macro background: Geopolitical conflicts dominate sentiment, and the Federal Reserve's speech becomes the focus.

Today, the cryptocurrency market is showing a volatile pattern under the intertwining of multiple macro factors. The ongoing escalation of the U.S.-Iran war remains a core variable suppressing risk appetite—military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran are still ongoing, Trump has reiterated threats to Iran's energy infrastructure, international oil prices remain above $100, and geopolitical risks continue to intensify.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech tonight (10:30 PM Eastern Time), which is the most important macro event this week. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot predicting only one rate cut in 2026. If Powell signals a dovish stance (implying that the labor market has cooled enough to support earlier easing), it may trigger a rebound; if hawkish rhetoric is reinforced, the dollar will strengthen, and Treasury yields will rise, further suppressing crypto assets.

In addition, this week will also see a series of economic data: on April 1, JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence index; on April 2, ADP employment and retail sales; on April 4, non-farm payroll report (released on Easter Friday). The non-farm payroll is expected to increase by only 45,000, which is an improvement from February's -92,000 but still appears weak.

Second, market trend: Bitcoin's rollercoaster-like fluctuations, with $65,000 becoming a key defense line.

Bitcoin exhibited a "rollercoaster" market yesterday: it initially dropped to a two-week low of $64,998 due to macro risks during the early session, then strongly rebounded to $68,100 in the evening on dovish expectations from Powell, but fell back after facing strong selling pressure, currently consolidating around $67,000.

Technical highlights:

· The daily line shows a long upper shadow inverted hammer, indicating that the multiple moving averages above and the previous dense trading area exert strong resistance.

· Bullish rebound momentum is insufficient, and bearish selling pressure still dominates.

· Key support zone: $65,000 (last week's low), if it breaks below, it will test the $62,300-$60,000 range.

· Upper resistance: $69,000 (50-day exponential moving average), breaking above targets $74,500-$76,000

It is worth noting that Bitcoin is facing a historic record: if March closes with a bearish candle, it will mark the first time in history that January, February, and March all close down, forming a rare pattern of six consecutive months of decline; the last occurrence of such a long-term bearish trend dates back to the 2018 bear market.

Third, Ethereum: weak oscillation, the $2,000 level is a psychological defense line.

Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin, having rebounded to $2,084 yesterday before momentum weakened, currently weakly oscillating in the $2,000-$2,050 range.

Key position analysis:

· Lower support: $1,916 (February low), if it breaks below, it will test $1,750

· Upper resistance: $2,040 (50-day moving average), breaking above targets $2,400

· The 4-hour Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, with the range significantly tightening, and consolidation needs to be completed below the $2,000 level.

Robinhood's predictive market data shows that bets on Ethereum's price on March 31 are concentrated in the $1,260-$1,340 range (Note: this data may have delays or inaccuracies).

Fourth, mainstream altcoin performance: significant differentiation, XRP faces dual pressure.

XRP is currently around $1.32, down about 8% this week. Analysts warn that if Bitcoin retreats to $60,000, XRP could amplify its decline to $0.80 (about 1.8 times the correlation effect). Key support levels are: $1.28 (440 million XRP chip dense area), $1.11, $1.00.

On the news front, the European Central Bank has officially accepted tokenized securities as collateral, with the Axiology platform built on the XRPL open-source code, but the ECB has made it clear that it "does not involve the use of XRP public chain tokens". The market's overhyped narrative of "XRP becoming ECB collateral" has been debunked, which may trigger a sentiment reversal in the short term.

SOL is still consolidating in the $76-95 range, breaking above $95 will open up upside potential; DOGE is struggling at the $0.09 support level, if it breaks below, it could drop to $0.08; ADA has fallen below the critical support of $0.25, with a clear bearish trend.

Five, key event reminders for this week

1. FTX launches the fourth round of compensation (today): approximately $2.2 billion will be allocated to creditors, which may trigger some selling pressure.

2. Token unlocks: A total of approximately $94 million will be unlocked this week, with SUI releasing $49.17 million (on Thursday), which may impact the prices of related tokens.

3. US-Iran situation: The US Secretary of State stated that the conflict is expected to last 2-4 weeks, and geopolitical risk premiums are unlikely to dissipate in the short term.

Six, operational strategy recommendations

Short-term: Bitcoin's $65,000 is the last defense line for bulls; if it breaks, one should exit and observe; it is not advisable to chase high before breaking $69,000. Current market sentiment is in the "extreme fear" zone (Fear and Greed Index at 25 points), treating the short-term as a range oscillation.

Medium to long term: On-chain models show that if BTC holds the low point of $60,000, a full recovery from the peak of $126,000 in October 2025 is still expected to take about 125 days; if it breaks below the $40,000-$45,000 range, recovery may be delayed until Q2 2027. The current macro environment is similar to 2018, but institutional funds (ETFs) and halving cycle logic still provide mid-term support.

Risk warning: High leverage trading poses significant risks in the current high volatility environment, it is recommended to reduce leverage or mainly observe.