Looking at the dynamics of Bitcoin, the market has once again worked through a mix of previous scenarios. The market maker, as planned, elegantly removed the lows near $65,500, made a technical breach at $65,000, and continued the pressure. The current structure increasingly resembles the same fractal with a breach at $98k, only now everything is complicated by a powerful non-systemic factor — Trump with his political 'swings'.
Smart Money has long filtered out the yellow press, but tensions in the information field are still rising.
🤦♂️ This week we are facing a true perfect storm: month-end closing + a cocktail of heavy macro news + Good Friday. The pressure is mounting. Trump extended the deadline to April 7, but his rhetoric is clearly hitting the ratings ahead of the November Senate elections. Meanwhile, the market is being warmed up by the narrative that the Fed may keep the rate unchanged until the end of the year, or even consider a hike. The market is liking such prospects less and less.
Current movement vectors for the coming days:
Scenario A — filling the 4H FVG and continuing the correction.
Logic: a solid pool of liquidity has accumulated from the recent news releases and liquidation squeezes. The chart has drawn a 'shelf' up to $70,000. A local bounce at the beginning of the week (Monday-Tuesday) looks as natural as possible — at least for gathering this liquidity, at most — for classic manipulation before the month-end closing.
Scenario B — aggressive short squeeze.
Logic: under the zone of $72,000–$74,000, the market maker collected a powerful cluster of stops from early short sellers. As a manipulation before the month-end closing, it is quite realistic to see a quality short squeeze to remove this pool. This will give the market bullish hope for the opening of April. Especially since the media is already actively promoting the 2018 fractal with the promise of five months of uninterrupted growth.
Scenario C — removal of lows through a deceptive maneuver.
Logic: a slight sweep up on Monday, gathering local stops, and then a pullback to remove the previous month's lows. It resembles Scenario A but without a deep dive for liquidity at $70k — we will limit ourselves to a full coverage of the 4H FVG. The key milestone is testing the zone of $64,000–$62,000 and the ability of buyers to hold there.
💬 'Helicopters' are guaranteed this week. We won’t get unnecessarily involved in news battles, keep a cool head, focus solely on volatility, and work only with clear, understandable setups. The main thing is to preserve the deposit!
💬 Prepare for turbulence, brothers. The market loves weeks like these the most, when everything converges into one point. We maintain discipline. 🚀
