First, let's talk about the macro perspective
Tariffs officially took effect today, and the market's reaction is not one of digestion, but panic. The total market capitalization dropped by about 2.6% to $2.37 trillion. Trump also stated in his speech that the US-Iran war will last until the end of April, even threatening to strike Iranian power plants, completely overturning the previous expectation of a "2-3 week ceasefire."
Oil prices have surged past $100, forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish stance. The bond market has completely erased bets on interest rate cuts in 2026. High oil prices + high interest rates + geopolitical conflicts present a triple pressure here.
Additionally, one more thing about regulation: the CFTC Chairman has clearly stated that they are ready to regulate the entire $3 trillion cryptocurrency market. In the short term, this doesn't seem bearish, but in the medium to long term, it means compliance costs will only continue to rise.
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First, BTC: 65,000 is the last bottom for bulls.
Market situation:
BTC was hammered down from around 69,000 to a low of 66,171 today, currently slightly rebounding and struggling around 66,500-66,600. It has dropped about 3.5%.
Several key details are worth noting:
· Downwards with volume, rebounds without volume. The volume during the drop is obviously much larger than during the rebound, indicating that selling pressure dominates, and buying cannot hold.
· RSI has fallen below 30, short-term momentum has already exhausted, but many people view oversold conditions as a buying signal, which is dangerous.
· On-chain mempool congestion, a large number of low-fee Ordinals transactions flooding in, causing settlement delays, short-term liquidity decreases, further lowering price discovery efficiency.
Key position:
· Current price: 66,500-66,600
· Short-term resistance: 67,100-67,300, this is currently the first line of defense pushed down by SuperTrend. If it can't hold above, it confirms weakness.
· Strong resistance: 69,000-69,300, corresponding to the 50-day moving average; prices quickly plummeted after touching it last night, with heavy selling pressure.
· Current support: 66,000-66,200, which has been tested multiple times today; if 66,000 breaks, bulls will be in danger.
· Ultimate defense line: 65,000, this is the psychological bottom for bulls; breaking below will look to 62,000-60,000 or even lower.
Operation strategy:
Short-term traders: buy high and sell low within the range of 66,000-67,300; exit and watch if breaking below 66,000. This position is not recommended for chasing longs; rebound space is limited, and there is resistance above.
Medium to long term: do not rush to catch the bottom. The support at 65,000 is not solid; those looking to build positions should wait around 60,000 or even 54,000 (the average market holding cost) to gradually dollar-cost average.
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Second, ETH: weaker than BTC, the $2,000 level is critical.
Market situation:
ETH fell harder today, down 4.66% to around 2,045, dropping directly from a high of 2,167 to a low of 2,037.
The trend characteristics are exactly the same as BTC—downwards with volume, rebounds without volume. The large bearish candle from 2,167 had the highest volume during this entire period, indicating that someone is actively selling, not retail investors naturally retreating. ETH currently has no independent market; it completely follows BTC, and if BTC doesn't stabilize, it can't hold up.
Key position:
· Current price: 2,040-2,050
· SuperTrend resistance: 2,076, currently priced over 30 dollars below, at risk of being pressed down at any time.
· Key support: $2,000, which is a psychological level; breaking below may trigger large-scale liquidations.
· Deeper support: 1,966-1,936, if it breaks below 2,000, this will be the next stop.
Operation strategy:
Short-term traders: mainly wait and see. $2,000 is the defense line; breaking below will mean exit. Until 2,076 can’t be surpassed, do not actively open long positions.
Medium to long term: The fundamental logic for ETH (ETF staking narrative, regulatory classifications gradually clarifying) is still there, but technically very weak, so there's no rush to heavily invest. Wait for daily-level stabilization signals, such as closing above 2,080 before considering.
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Third, BNB: three consecutive weeks of decline, but there is a potential catalyst.
Market situation:
BNB is weaker than BTC and ETH. The current price is around $590, marking the third consecutive week of decline.
The technical outlook is very bleak: prices are far below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, the daily RSI has slid to the mid-30s, and the MACD is also probing below the zero line, with selling pressure showing no signs of weakening. The three-day chart has formed a bearish flag pattern, with analysts pointing to the next target around $466, a further 25% drop from current levels.
The ecological data of BNB Chain is also deteriorating: DEX trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since April last year, with active addresses and transaction numbers declining.
Key position:
· Current price: about $590
· Support: $570 (February low), breaking below opens the door to $500.
· Resistance: $697, quite far, generally not worth watching in the short term.
Long-short ratio: 0.80, close to a month’s low, indicating a generally bearish market.
But BNB has a potential catalyst:
The BSC network will execute a token burn worth over $1 billion in the coming weeks, approximately 1.57 million BNB. Token burns usually reduce circulating supply, providing price support. Additionally, Binance's newly launched prediction market feature adds more application scenarios for BNB.
The problem is—in the current environment of macro risks looming, the influence of these fundamentally bullish factors will be greatly weakened. The bearish flag pattern combined with extremely weak macro sentiment prioritizes technicals over fundamentals.
Operation strategy:
Short-term traders: can take small positions in the 570-590 area to bet on a rebound, but strictly set stop-loss at 560. The overall market atmosphere is heavily bearish, and consider shorting BNB when it rebounds at resistance.
Medium to long term: wait for the specific timing of the $1 billion burn to assess. If the price can drop to around 500, combined with the burn catalyst, it may have speculative value. The risk-reward ratio is not good at the moment.
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To summarize:
The commonality among the three coins today is: all weak in the short term, all weak in the short term, all weak in the short term. Important things are said three times.
Tariffs have landed, Trump’s tough stance, oil prices soaring, and rate cut expectations being erased; triple macro pressures show no clear improvement in the short term. Friday’s non-farm data is the next important variable—poor data may ignite hopes for rate cuts, while strong data will continue to exert pressure.
The operating principle remains unchanged: do not chase highs, do not hold positions, do not leverage. 65,000 for BTC, 2,000 for ETH, and 570 for BNB are all key observation levels. If they break, exit, and wait for lower positions before considering; do not make things difficult for yourself.
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The above is personal trading notes and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks; decisions rely on oneself.$BTC $ETH $BNB #Drift协议遭黑客攻击 #BTC行情