Polymarket and Kalshi prediction market traders have placed a massive multi-million dollar bet on the outcomes of the 2026 Iran war, with a 90% chance of U.S. entry into Iran and trading volume exceeding $115 million.

The biggest thing is this.

Polymarket traders have placed $115M on the entry of U.S. forces into Iran by December 31, giving it a 90% probability.

The volume of Kalshi's Strait of Hormuz closure market is $7.3M, indicating significant concern over a 7-day blockade.

Mojataba Khamenei has a 64% chance of leading Iran by the end of 2026 as the successor market is experiencing significant upheaval after the Supreme Leader's death.

Betting on the outcomes of the war in 2026 is a big deal.

This battle, known to U.S. as Operation Epic Fury and to Israel as Roaring Lion, began on February 28, 2026, after the failure of nuclear talks in Rome. U.S. and Israeli forces conducted airstrikes across Iran, resulting in heavy damage to Iran. Among the casualties was Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The most active Iran markets on Polymarket now come in five categories: Military Timeline, Leadership Succession, Regional Strike, Strait of Hormuz, and Diplomacy. Overall, they depict a battle that I and traders believe is not over yet, and the hope for any compromise or resolution on good conditions is very low.

Polymarket has placed bets on April 4, 2026.

As far as I can see, this is a very big problem. We think everyone is a mixed devotee. There is an 82% chance that the Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict will end by December 31. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is at a 70% chance with a volume of $87 million. Traders give a 69% chance that President Donald Trump will announce the end of military operations against Iran by June 30. A full U.S. invasion before 2027 holds a 52% chance, supported by a volume of $3 million.

The leadership market is rapidly advancing. With Khamenei's death and his son Mojataba being named as the successor, Polymarket gives Mojataba Khamenei a 64% chance of remaining in power until the end of 2026, supported by a volume of $6 million. The chance of a general leadership change before the end of the year is at 36%. There is only an 18% chance of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30, though a volume of $13 million indicates that traders are paying close attention to their trades.

The Strait of Hormuz is where some of the most concentrated bets reside. Kalshi's market is tracking whether Iran will effectively close the strait for seven or more days, holding a volume of $7.3 million across three sub-markets. Polymarket shows a 31% chance that Iran's primary oil export terminal, Kharg Island, will not remain under Iranian control by June 30, supported by $12 million for that outcome. The strike at the oil terminal is also at 31% before April 30. Polymarket gives only an 11% chance that traffic through the Hormuz strait will return to normal by April 30, which will increase to 33% by May 31. The average daily ship transit pricing for April 3 is set at 100% for the 0-10 range. By the end of April, there is a 51% chance of prices for daily transits above 20 ships.

The question of the nuclear deal attracts the highest dollar volume in Kalshi. Traders in four markets have wagered $3.16 million on the outcomes of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. There is a 35% chance of a deal at 2.73x before 2027. A deal drops to 19% at 4.98x before August. Polymarket places the nuclear deal at just 3% by April 30.

Kalshi has placed a bet on April 4, 2026.

There is a 9% chance on Polymarket with a volume of $474,000 that Iran will develop nuclear weapons before 2027. There is an 8% chance of an official declaration of war by the U.S. on Iran with $5 million by December 31.

The price of diplomatic activity on both platforms is set in doubt, with a 56% chance of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting on Polymarket with a volume of $1 million by June 30. There is a 21% chance of talking with Iranian negotiators before April 30. Kalshi has a 17% chance that the U.S. will reopen its embassy in Iran.

There is an 11% chance on Kalshi for Trump coming to Iran before 2027. This drops to 2% before June 2026.

By April 4, Iran claimed that two U.S. aircraft were shot down near the Strait of Hormuz. The White House has issued an ultimatum to reopen the strait by April 6 or face attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. Traders are keeping an eye on this. Money has already left as this is very risky; who is wrong and who is right cannot be said, but you can respond. What do you think about this war?#Ranjupawan #Write2Earn #Irannews $POL