⚡️ Friends, the $65,000 Bitcoin has been holding on very precariously. The price keeps fluctuating between 65k and 66k, unable to go up or down.

Glassnode data shows that over 8 million Bitcoins are in a state of loss, very similar to before the big drop in 2022. Below 65k, there are billions of dollars in long positions; once it breaks, it's a chain reaction.

The market is very simple now, either hold on and grind slowly, or fall and go down. It's no longer the narratives of the crypto world that dictate. Oil prices have broken 100, inflation expectations are rising, and the Federal Reserve is in a bind. After the non-farm data, the market has erased the expectation of two rate cuts this year; now there are none left. Liquidity will not loosen; without rate cuts, there will be no sustained inflow of funds.

The total market value of stablecoins has surged to $315 billion; the money hasn’t run away, but has all been converted to stablecoins standing on the sidelines. Everyone is still here, just not daring to move.

In April, don't guess the direction, guess the rhythm. Historically, Bitcoin has averaged over 30% growth in April, but the entry stance this year is too weak. At the beginning of the month, liquidity is thin and volatility is amplified; mid-month CPI and non-farm payrolls will alternate in causing disturbances; what can really give direction is the FOMC meeting at the end of the month on April 28–29. The first half of the month is likely to be a grind, shake, and endure.

It's not all bad news. Miners are holding up well; after the halving, income has halved, but the inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges has instead dropped to the lowest point since June 2023. Fidelity found that funds have begun to flow back to Bitcoin from gold ETFs. The probability of the U.S. (clear legislation) passing in the Senate has risen to 70%, and only after the rules are established can the waiting funds truly enter the market.

The current Bitcoin is no longer like a bull-bear boundary, but more like a transitional period driven by macro factors. For ordinary players, the direction is unclear, and volatility is not small. Whether April can determine a direction is unknown.

It is better to focus on three concrete signals: what the Federal Reserve says, how ETF money flows, and how the supply of stablecoins changes. Until then, patience is more important than intelligence.