You’re reading the situation correctly—those probabilities point to a “wait-and-see” stance by the Federal Reserve, which is pretty typical when inflation is cooling but not fully under control.

Here’s what’s really driving that stability:

🔎 Why the Fed is Holding Steady

Inflation is easing, but not at target

The Fed wants inflation closer to ~2% before cutting aggressively.

Labor market still strong

Low unemployment reduces urgency to cut rates.

Mixed economic signals

Growth isn’t collapsing, but it’s not booming either—so no need to hike or cut fast.

📊 What Your Probabilities Mean

April (98% no change):

Almost locked—no surprise move expected.

June (96% no change):

Still steady, but this is where the first real shift could begin if data weakens.

👉 In short:

The market is pricing in stability now, flexibility later.