Morning news:
1. Strategy increased its holdings by 4,871 bitcoins last week.
2. Strategy has an unrealized loss of approximately $4.729 billion, Bitmine has an unrealized loss of approximately $7.202 billion.
3. CFTC Chairman: The federal regulatory framework has clarified that the CFTC has the authority to regulate prediction markets.
4. SEC Chairman: The crypto safe harbor proposal has been submitted to the White House for review, which will allow projects to raise funds without immediate registration.
5. The President of Argentina has been revealed to have call records with personnel from the LIBRA project, casting doubt on his claim of 'no connection'. 6. A U.S. court ruled that New Jersey has no authority to restrict Kalshi sports prediction contracts.
7. OpenAI plans to go public as early as the fourth quarter.
8. Polymarket plans to upgrade its trading engine and launch its native stablecoin, Polymarket USD;
9. Bitmine increased its holdings by 71,252 ETH last week, pushing its staking scale to over $7 billion;
10. South Korean fintech company Toss plans to issue its native cryptocurrency:
11. On-chain perpetual contract trading is cooling down: DEX trading volume has dropped for five consecutive months, shrinking by nearly 50% from its peak.
12. Strive increased its holdings by 113 BTC, raising its total to 13,791 BTC;
13. Empery Digital reduced its holdings by 370 BTC last week, bringing its total down to 2,989 BTC.
Currently, BTC bulls are losing momentum, and market support is barely maintained by expectations around Trump’s TACO policy. On a 4-hour chart: since the rebound started at the 60k mark, the bullish momentum curve has gradually declined. Even though this round saw prices peak around 70,300, there hasn't been any significant new capital entering to go long, indicating a severe lack of bullish conviction.
Daily chart: The 8 PM close is likely to form a shooting star candlestick, with clear selling pressure above. The price only briefly touched the 58-day medium to long-term uptrend line but failed to break through effectively; the trend line's resistance remains strong, and the bulls are struggling. Order book: Exchange sell orders have quietly increased, and short positions are gradually positioning themselves. Currently, the shorting main force is still observing, waiting for two key events: Trump-related decisions on April 8 and the subsequent CPI inflation data release, which may trigger concentrated moves. Overall, the weekly level's dead cat bounce is nearing its end, with rebound momentum completely exhausted. The subsequent weekly wave 5 downtrend is about to commence, and positions must be managed carefully with risk control, preparing layouts in advance.
In this circle, there are always trading opportunities, but it's filled with tricks and greed.
The scams in the market always follow the same playbook: 1. Hype their own precision and capabilities; 2. Constantly claim a 90% win rate with guaranteed profits; 3. Flood the space with screenshots of large profits to create a façade of wealth; 4. Brainwash you into thinking you can make money just by following the crowd.
Take a moment to reflect: trading is all about probability; there's no such thing as a guaranteed win, and long-term high win rates are a myth. Those who only flaunt profits and remain silent on risks are not traders; they’re just here to lure you in and harvest your funds. Remember the bottom line: those who boast a 90% win rate are primarily aiming to scam you into participating.
Truly reliable players in this space tend to be humble and restrained. They openly discuss losses, face drawdowns, and acknowledge market uncertainties; they focus on the underlying logic and strictly manage risk, never painting rosy pictures or showcasing fake profits.
I always adhere to my principles: no idolizing, no boasting, no promises of high profits, and no fake tricks. I only share real thoughts, market rhythms, and executable logic daily. I advise everyone to keep their eyes wide open: steer clear of high win rate myths and shake off the desire for overnight riches. Trading is a long-distance game; don’t let momentary greed lead you into a deep pit.
The above content is merely a personal thought sharing and does not constitute investment advice; any profits or losses incurred are at your own risk.