Ethereum (ETH) price is at $2,108 on the 12-hour chart on April 7, about 1% lower in the last 24 hours. The movement does not seem particularly significant. Still, four different metrics from technical analysis, derivatives, and on-chain data point to the same conclusion. None of these signals indicate a downward trend.

The last time something similar happened, especially on a technical level, the Ethereum price rose by 16%. Whether this happens again depends on a few levels that are now approaching.

Two technical signals converge on the 12-hour chart

The first metric is the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) structure. This is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent price movements. On the 12-hour chart, the 20-period EMA at $2,083 is close to the 50-period EMA at $2,086. When the faster EMA crosses above the slower EMA, a bullish crossover occurs, which often indicates a shift in short-term momentum.

This setup began to develop in mid-March. The crossover occurred around that time, after which the Ethereum price rose by 15.63%. This even reclaimed the 100-period EMA. This same structure is forming again now. Since April 5, the price has already increased by 7.59%, and the 20 and 50 EMA are now only $3 apart. The 100-period EMA is at $2,144. A confirmed crossover would place that zone directly in focus.

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The second metric is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator. Between March 19 and April 6, the price made a lower low on the 12-hour chart while the RSI showed a higher low.

This standard bullish divergence indicates that selling momentum is decreasing, even as the price is tested at lower levels. The divergence remains valid as long as the Ethereum price stays above $2,086. A drop below that level invalidates this last swing as confirmed low until it is reestablished.

Together, the EMA convergence and the RSI divergence form the technical basis for a potential increase. However, technical patterns alone do not create price movement. The derivatives market and on-chain data show whether there is enough 'fuel' for a real move.

Shorts are piling up and whales are not selling

The third metric comes from the derivatives market. On April 4, the total open interest for Ethereum was $10.49 billion with a funding rate of approximately -0.0015%. By April 7, the open interest had risen to $10.77 billion, while the funding rate further dropped to -0.007%.

Rising open interest, combined with an increasingly negative funding rate, means one thing: traders are opening more short positions. This can serve as contrarian fuel, as if the price goes against the shorts, they have to buy to close their positions. This can cause a short squeeze and drive a powerful increase.

The fourth metric looks at whale activity. Since April 3, whale wallets (excluding exchanges) have increased their holdings from 122.73 million to 122.92 million ETH. That increase of about 190,000 ETH, approximately $400 million, indicates steady accumulation rather than aggressive buying.

The main point: whales have not reduced their positions during the recent weakness. They continue to hold during the dip and even quietly add. This creates spot support, beneath the potential short squeeze of the derivatives market.

The technical setup points the direction. The derivatives market provides the contrarian fuel. The whale accumulation forms the spot bottom. All four metrics point towards the same outcome, with the price levels ultimately being decisive.

Ethereum price levels that determine whether the bounce continues

The 12-hour chart with technical levels of the rounded swing shows each important level.

The first hurdle is $2,116 at the 0.382 level. A 12-hour close above this level would bring the Ethereum price back above the zone where the EMA crossover is likely confirmed, providing additional momentum. Above that, $2,172 is the key resistance. This level has rejected the price multiple times since mid-March, and a clear break above it would signify the first real change in the short-term structure.

For the bounce to really show strength, Ethereum must reach $2,228 at the 0.618 level, an increase of 5.77% from the current price. A close above $2,228 would confirm that the four metrics contribute to a real trend reversal instead of yet another failed bounce.

At the bottom, $2,086 is the level that maintains the RSI divergence. Below that, $2,047 at the 0.236 level becomes the immediate support floor. A break below $2,047 exposes $1,935 and suggests that the four converging metrics are not enough to overcome the larger bearish pressure.

A 12-hour close above $2,172 would confirm the bounce expectation that all four metrics indicate. If it fails to hold $2,086, the pattern will be delayed and the Ethereum price will become vulnerable to a retest of $1,935.