Myth 1: The closure of Ormuz only affects oil
The reality is that one third of the world's maritime trade in fertilizers, 40% of the global supply of helium essential for semiconductors, and between 50 and 70% of industrial sulfur passed through that strait.
Myth 2: All oil is interchangeable
Heavy and medium crude from the Persian Gulf is irreplaceable for producing diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil — products that U.S. light shale oil cannot generate in necessary volumes.
Myth 3: U.S. shale oil is capable of compensating for disruptions in the Gulf
Recent data shows that even with prices close to $100 per barrel, hydraulic fracturing drilling has not significantly reactivated; in fact, optimistic forecasts do not take into account the decline in pressure in the Permian Basin, which will hinder even the maintenance of current production levels. Oil production responds to long-term investment cycles, not to short-term price signals.
Myth 4: There would be a quick return to normalcy if the strait is reopened
Experts from Rystad Energy warn that, even with the strait cleared tomorrow, restoring production could take until November due to damage to wells and reservoirs.
Myth 5: Conventional military superiority
This has dissolved in the face of asymmetric warfare given that $20,000 drones destroy radar systems worth half a million, and the 5 197 high-tech missiles launched by the United States in 96 hours represent a replacement cost of $10-16 billion, which the Western industry no longer has the physical capacity to manufacture.
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