Total market cap 4H. Let me break this down properly because a lot of people are about to get trapped.
5-wave impulse down, completed. Wave 1 through 5 printed clean from January highs all the way to the 2.2T floor. That's a full bearish cycle by the book.
Now we bounced. And yes, altcoins are flying today. Green everywhere. People are calling the bottom.
But look WHERE we're bouncing from, 2.42T. Same horizontal level that acted as support and resistance through all of Feb and March. Price has respected this dotted line multiple times. That's not a bottom signal, that's just a reaction to a known level.
Now look UP. There's a heavy blue resistance cluster stacked between 2.8T and 3.1T. Three lines. All untested since the breakdown. That zone is where the real decision happens, not here.
Here's my honest read after 5 years watching these structures:
This looks like a textbook wave 4 corrective bounce inside a larger bearish cycle. Relief rallies after 5-wave completions are normal. They fake out retail, flush late shorts, and then reality sets back in.
The macro hasn't changed. Tariffs are still in play. Institutional flows haven't confirmed reversal. No volume structure to support a full trend shift yet.
Until we reclaim and CLOSE above 2.8T on 4H, I'm treating every green candle as a risk management opportunity, not a FOMO signal.
Could this be the real bounce? Yes, possible. But probability says we need more confirmation.
Levels over feelings. Always.
Real bounce or bull trap, what's your read? Comment below.