⚡️ Friends, last night Bitcoin's big bullish candle had me watching for a long time, and I felt something was off. Let me first explain the background.

Last night, around 11:30, Bitcoin suddenly surged to $71,000. The entire network exploded with 270 million, 90% of which were shorts. The group chat went crazy, with some saying it was a bull return, while others said it was a trap for the bulls.

There's only one thing in the news: the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz is willing to open, oil prices are expected to drop, and risk assets can breathe a sigh of relief. Bitcoin naturally jumped up first.

But if you look closely at the details, something feels off. The ceasefire is real, but it's more like a halftime break. Iran actually rejected the 45-day proposal, but is ambiguous about the shorter two-week option. To put it bluntly, it's a wait-and-see approach; it's not necessarily a genuine negotiation.

Trump also made it clear that if negotiations fail, fighting could resume at any time. The early morning of April 8 is what he referred to as a deadline.

The prediction market Polymarket gives a clearer probability: on April 7, the chance of a real ceasefire was only 4%, and by April 15 it was only 19%.

In other words, the market pulled Bitcoin up by 4 points because of an event with less than a 20% probability. If you say this is rational pricing, I don't really believe it.

Money has come in, but the direction is not unified; on Binance, 2 billion dollars of active buying rushed in within 2 hours, and open interest increased by 7%. New funds are indeed entering the market.

On the other hand, there is a continuous net outflow in the spot market. This is interesting; everyone is desperately going long on contracts, while those who actually hold the spot are quietly selling.

A whale account directly opened a short position at a high level. Players of this level are unlikely to casually touch the top, but they might be thinking: a rebound driven by geopolitical sentiment generally doesn't last long.

Technically, it has been grinding for two months; before this wave, Bitcoin was stagnant between 65000 and 73000 for a full 70 days. The volatility has been pressed to an extremely low level, and under this structure, any news can kick the market.

The price has just reached 71400, with 72000 - 75000 being the previously dense transaction area. If it can hold 72000, the scenario might be different; if it can't, a pullback to 68000 wouldn't be surprising.

MACD shows signs of a bottom divergence, but divergence requires sustained buying to materialize; otherwise, it's just a decoration.

Let's talk about something concrete.

First, don't use a ceasefire as a reason for heavy investment. Two weeks is very short, and Iran's negotiation style isn't something that can be resolved in one go.

Second, the ETF saw an inflow of 470 million yesterday; institutions are indeed buying. But they are building positions in batches and holding long-term; they aren't afraid of another 10% drop, are you?

Third, the fear and greed index is still at 17, indicating extreme fear. Based on historical experience, fear is often followed by a rebound, but whether it can last depends on whether fear can turn into greed. Currently, it hasn't changed.

Short-term inertia exists, but the pressure at 72k-75k is significant. If you want to chase, either wait for a pullback to 69k to see support or wait for it to stabilize above 72k before entering on the right side. Set a stop loss at 66k.

From a long-term perspective, if you believe in the four-year cycle and halving logic, this position for dollar-cost averaging isn't bad. But don't go all in; geopolitical issues are unpredictable, and no one can say what news will break when you wake up tomorrow.

The essence of this rebound is that the market has been pent up for too long; it seized upon this temporary straw to surge. But it is not a confirmation signal of the bottom.

The real turning point depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz has truly opened, and whether Trump said anything harsh tonight.

Before that, two weeks of ceasefire, don't treat it as an invitation for a bull comeback.

This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.