The price of the Pi Network (PI) is trading at $0.1714 within a falling channel on the 8-hour chart. However, currently three indicators are turning bullish. Two of them are moving differently from the downtrend, and the third is supporting the price.
This change appeared after the Pi Network completed its first customer identity verification (KYC) validator reward distribution. Over 126 million tasks were processed by more than a million validators. The V21.2 hard fork was completed on April 6, and 119,000 pioneers finished the second migration. The network is achieving milestones, but the price of Pi coin continues to show a downward trend.
The divergence occurs with RSI and MFI, alongside the emergence of downward buyers.
From March 27 to April 7, the price of Pi coin continued to lower its lows within a falling channel. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed of price changes, did not follow the price movements.
During the same period, the RSI formed a gentle peak, creating a bullish divergence on the 8-hour chart. The current value is 34.54, which is below the baseline of 50. However, this divergence suggests that selling pressure is gradually weakening at each low.
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The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a volume-based momentum indicator and acts as a proxy for downward buying activity. From March 27 to April 7, prices fell, but the MFI showed an upward trend. Currently measured at 45.24, it indicates that investors have begun to buy at a low despite the price decline.
The network situation also supports changes in demand. The Pi core team distributed rewards for the performance of 526 million verification tasks to over a million customer identity verification (KYC) validators. This shows that the team has demonstrated decentralized operational capabilities.
However, a reversal is not confirmed solely by chart divergence. Whether large holders participate is the next major issue.
CMF maintains an upward trend along with the accumulation of network milestones
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is an indicator of buying and selling pressure from large holders, reinforcing the bullish argument. The CMF is at 0.02, above the zero line. It showed an upward trend along with price from April 5 to 7. This suggests that the recent rebound may be based more on the participation of large holders than on individual investor speculation.
This period also coincides with on-chain activity. Over 119,000 Pi Network pioneers have unlocked their transferable balances after completing the second migration. Although tokens are added to the circulating supply in the second migration, the CMF trend shows that this new supply is being absorbed rather than flooding the market.
Momentum, buying at lows, and funding flow data all suggest the same direction, making the price chart the basis for determining whether these signals lead to an actual breakout.
Price range of Pi coin determining the trend
PI is trading at $0.171, just 2% lower than the upper trend line of the falling channel (0.236 Fibonacci level, $0.174). If the daily close surpasses $0.174, the downward structure will break, and the short-term outlook will shift from bearish to neutral.
Above the channel, the first resistance level is the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $0.180. If the upward trend continues, the target could be the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.189. When the trend continues, $0.204 becomes the extended target.
The breakout from the falling channel has subtle points. The volume must confirm the movement. If it surpasses the upper trend line with low volume as it is now, there is a risk of trapping buyers before the subsequent downtrend resumes. If the CMF remains above the zero line, it will serve as a confirmation of the breakout signal.
In the downtrend, $0.165 is the bottom. If it falls below this price, the divergence signals of the RSI and MFI will be invalidated, and the downtrend will continue. $0.174 is the tipping point between the current channel breakout range and the rise to $0.189, as well as the drop below $0.165.