News:
Negative factors are clustered together! 'The Federal Reserve's hawkish tone is rising again', 'More officials mention the possibility of interest rate hikes', 'The outlook for interest rate cuts has turned bleak', 'Inflation may last longer'. The core issue is the Federal Reserve's shift to a hawkish stance, which is currently the most important factor suppressing the market and is expected to continue to have an impact.
There are also positive factors: 'Michael Saylor says Bitcoin has bottomed out', 'Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin spot ETF is attracting capital'. However, compared to the power of the Federal Reserve, these positives seem a bit weak.
The technical and news aspects are currently 'divergent'! The 4-hour technical outlook is bullish, but the news is all negative, which is very dangerous.
On-chain data:
The sentiment indicator shows 'extreme fear' with an index of only 14, reflecting very pessimistic emotions. BTC's dominance stands at 56.96%, and there hasn’t been a massive exit from Bitcoin. The total market cap is 2.485 trillion, with a 24-hour change of -1.33%.
On-chain data and short-term technicals (1h, 15m short) are in 'resonance', both pointing to a bearish outlook. However, they diverge from the bullish technical patterns on the 4-hour chart.
Bitcoin is currently oscillating within a high range, and there was no strong directional movement yesterday. The price spiked up then retraced, followed by a slight rebound, but then it dipped again overnight. The market is showing a classic range-bound tug-of-war. In such choppy conditions, avoid blindly chasing trades; be cautious of FOMO and panic selling. As long as you identify the range boundaries, it's not too hard to manage the long and short trades.
From a 4-hour perspective, the price is still operating near the upper middle band of the Bollinger Bands. After yesterday's spike, the candlestick formed a long upper wick, followed by a consolidation with two bearish candles testing the lower support. If the middle band support is breached, the market will likely continue its high-range oscillation. Today's trading strategy suggests focusing on **shorting high and buying low**, flexibly positioning around the range's upper and lower bands.
ETH’s performance is relatively weak; last night, the short target of 2200 was hit, with a low of 2162. The current market structure is quite clear: apart from BTC, most altcoins are generally underperforming, passively following BTC's rise, but they tend to drop quickly on corrections. Currently around 2180, if it can regain 2200, there’s still a chance to reach 2280; otherwise, support is looking at the 2080 range.
The short entry point at 4850 for gold has been successfully reached. I emphasized yesterday that shorting around 4850 was advisable, and the bullish trend for gold isn’t over yet. This morning, the price has broken below the key support at 4740, with initial support looking at 4670; if this level fails, gold could further dip to the 4600 mark. Initially, I planned to capture a short-term pullback at 4850, but it seems I may need to extend the holding period.
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