⚡️ Friends, it has been reported that Iran plans to have tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz pay tolls in Bitcoin.
Once the news broke, BTC surged to 72,000 dollars, and shorts lost over 400 million in just one night. Many people have already started saying that Bitcoin is about to take off.
However, I looked through the original news and found something off. Iran did mention charging fees to compensate for war losses through a shipping tax. But the original statement didn't mention Bitcoin at all, let alone anything about 1 dollar per barrel. This seems more like social media mixing old news about cryptocurrency tolls (Bloomberg reported on it in early April, and it was about stablecoins at that time) with new statements about shipping taxes, which ultimately fermented into a Bitcoin toll station.
In simple terms, the narrative has been focused. Looking at the market reaction is even more thought-provoking: prices have risen, yet ETF funds are seeing net outflows, and institutions are not participating. On-chain data also shows that over 40,000 BTC flowed into exchanges in early April, indicating significant selling pressure. This wave feels more like emotion plus short squeezing rather than actual buying power.
Of course, Iran has been involved in cryptocurrency for quite some time. The Revolutionary Guard has been mining and settling with stablecoins for several years. But to say that global tankers will all pay fees in Bitcoin, where is the infrastructure? The power grid can barely be maintained, let alone mining.
Once the ceasefire agreement was signed, the Israeli military has struck again; the Strait can be closed at any moment. Geopolitics can turn faster than flipping a page.
So my view is very simple: the news does have some truth, but it has been amplified. BTC may still surge in the short term following the sentiment, but 70,000 to 73,000 is a pressure zone, and without new positive news, it will be hard to break through. Don't get caught up in the momentum; focus on swing trading.
Around 70,000, we can look for support; if it breaks, wait for 67,000. Don't chase the highs.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
Once the news broke, BTC surged to 72,000 dollars, and shorts lost over 400 million in just one night. Many people have already started saying that Bitcoin is about to take off.
However, I looked through the original news and found something off. Iran did mention charging fees to compensate for war losses through a shipping tax. But the original statement didn't mention Bitcoin at all, let alone anything about 1 dollar per barrel. This seems more like social media mixing old news about cryptocurrency tolls (Bloomberg reported on it in early April, and it was about stablecoins at that time) with new statements about shipping taxes, which ultimately fermented into a Bitcoin toll station.
In simple terms, the narrative has been focused. Looking at the market reaction is even more thought-provoking: prices have risen, yet ETF funds are seeing net outflows, and institutions are not participating. On-chain data also shows that over 40,000 BTC flowed into exchanges in early April, indicating significant selling pressure. This wave feels more like emotion plus short squeezing rather than actual buying power.
Of course, Iran has been involved in cryptocurrency for quite some time. The Revolutionary Guard has been mining and settling with stablecoins for several years. But to say that global tankers will all pay fees in Bitcoin, where is the infrastructure? The power grid can barely be maintained, let alone mining.
Once the ceasefire agreement was signed, the Israeli military has struck again; the Strait can be closed at any moment. Geopolitics can turn faster than flipping a page.
So my view is very simple: the news does have some truth, but it has been amplified. BTC may still surge in the short term following the sentiment, but 70,000 to 73,000 is a pressure zone, and without new positive news, it will be hard to break through. Don't get caught up in the momentum; focus on swing trading.
Around 70,000, we can look for support; if it breaks, wait for 67,000. Don't chase the highs.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.