Brothers, today's message is very substantial, and I will break it down for you.
ING Group and UBS both released reports on the 8th, with the core conclusion summed up in one sentence: don't expect oil prices to return to pre-conflict levels in the short term. Before the conflict, Brent was only $73 a barrel, and now? On the day the ceasefire news came out, it plummeted 15% to $92; as a result, Iran turned around and accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire terms, and today it rebounded directly—Brent reached $98.54, up 4%, and WTI hit $99.41, up 5.3%, approaching $100 again.
UBS stated very plainly: When will shipping in the Strait of Hormuz resume, and how much can be restored? It's completely uncertain. Tankers need to replan their routes, and repairing energy infrastructure will take at least a few weeks to several months. Once the Strait is blocked again, oil prices will rebound directly.
Even more ruthless is Goldman Sachs, which just downgraded its Q2 oil price forecast last night — Brent from 99 dollars to 90 dollars, WTI from 91 dollars to 87 dollars. It looks like good news, right? Don't rush, Goldman Sachs also warned: If the ceasefire collapses, oil prices will head straight for 115 dollars. From 90 to 115, that's a difference of 28%, and this volatility is significant.
Looking at Iran, it was initially said that the delegation would arrive in Islamabad for negotiations on the evening of the 9th, but the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan deleted this tweet. The basis for negotiations is Iran's 10 proposals, including controlling the Strait of Hormuz and lifting all sanctions — can the U.S. agree to these conditions?
It's likely to be another round of back-and-forth.
The impact chain on the crypto market is very clear: high oil prices stabilize → inflation data doesn’t come down (February core PCE year-on-year at 3.0%, far exceeding the Fed's 2% target) → interest rate cuts continue to be delayed → risk assets come under pressure.
In March, when oil prices soared, BTC directly dropped from a high to 63000-65700, with over 500 million dollars in liquidations on-chain, causing the fear and greed index to plummet. Now, although it has rebounded to around 71000, there is still significant pressure above.
Speaking of operations. BTC is now at 71128 dollars, just above the psychological barrier of 70000. TradingView's technical analysis shows this is the third test of 70000, with weak volume.
The key resistance is at 73000, with strong support at 67000-67500.
My judgment: The Islamabad negotiations on Friday are a short-term watershed.
Progress in negotiations, oil prices continue to drop → BTC is very likely to break through 73000, with targets looking at 75000-78000. In this case, a small long position can be taken around 71000, with a stop loss at 68500, offering a risk-reward ratio close to 2:1, which is worth pursuing.
The negotiations have collapsed, and oil prices are pushing above 100 again → BTC is very likely to pull back to 67000 or even 65000. In this situation, don't catch falling knives; wait for it to stabilize around 67000 before taking action.
The most stable strategy right now: keep your position under 20%, and wait for the negotiation results on Friday before increasing your holdings. Don’t go all-in betting on direction; in such geopolitically driven markets, a single tweet can trigger your stop loss.