The price of gold (XAU/USD) was $4,722 on April 9, down 3.32% from the April 8 peak of $4,858, as a strengthened dollar created a short-term headwind.
Alamäki was born after the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.65% from its lowest value of $98.52, reviving the petrodollar phenomenon, where the strengthening of the dollar supports it as the price of oil recovers. However, hidden bullish divergence, a potential 20-day EMA level retracement, and an upward shape in the gold-silver ratio suggest that the price of gold may still move above the $5,000 mark, even though intraday weakness occurs.
The downward channel of gold vs. the upward channel of the dollar.
The price of gold has been in a downward channel since reaching a peak of 5,603 dollars on January 29. The lowest point was on March 23, when the channel was tested at 4,098 dollars. The subsequent price rally pushed gold to a peak of 4,858 dollars on April 8 before the dollar strengthened.
The DXY tells the other side. The dollar has been in an upward channel for most of 2026. When the ceasefire was announced on April 7, the DXY fell to 98.52 dollars, nearly breaching the lower trendline.
However, the breaking of the ceasefire and ongoing uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices up, reviving the petrodollar phenomenon. Oil-importing countries needed dollars again to pay for crude oil, and the DXY jumped 0.65% to 99.01 dollars.
Gold and the dollar have moved in opposite directions throughout this period. When the dollar weakens, the price of gold strengthens and vice versa. The 3.32% drop on April 8-9 was a direct result of the dollar strengthening. The price of gold needs the DXY to fall below 98.52 dollars and for the channel to break for the bullish sentiment to return. Otherwise, the dollar acts as a barrier to gold's rise.
The headwind for the dollar is real but likely temporary. Two daily signals suggest that the broader bullish trend that began on March 23 will continue.
RSI divergence and EMA signal confirm the bullish outlook.
From February 2 to April 2, the price of gold rose to a higher low on a daily basis, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed of price changes, made a lower low. This is a hidden bullish divergence, indicating that the bullish trend that began on March 23 may continue despite a shallow correction.
The divergence is still in effect, as the price of gold has not fallen below the most recent swing low of 4,557 dollars. As long as this level holds, the bullish signal is valid.
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend indicator that emphasizes the most recent price fluctuations more, supports this view. The 20-day EMA is at 4,721 dollars, which is almost exactly at the current price level of gold. The 50-day EMA is at 4,780 dollars. Gold already surpassed the 100-day EMA at 4,633 dollars during the rally that began from the March 23 low and has remained above it since.
The last time gold clearly rose above the 20-day EMA level was on February 18. The subsequent price rally produced an increase of about 10% before it halted. A similar retracement now could enable a comparable movement.
The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) put-call ratio, which measures option sentiment in the largest gold-linked ETF, indicates slight hedging rather than panic. The volume ratio rose from 0.58 to 0.73 on April 7-8. The Open Interest ratio increased from 0.57 to 0.58. Both figures are still below one, meaning there are more call options than put options. A small increase reflects the addition of hedging positions after the drop, not a shift to a bearish sentiment.
RSI divergence and EMA approach both indicate a bullish trend. However, gold's chances of success do not depend solely on its own price development but also on how it performs relative to silver. The gold-silver ratio indicates this last layer.
The gold-silver ratio is building an upward structure as gold aims for outperformance.
The gold-silver ratio (XAU/XAG) is currently 63.70 and is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on a daily basis. An increasing ratio means that gold's strength relative to silver is increasing.
The key levels for this ratio are 69.50 at the 0.618 level and 71.72 at the 0.786 level. A rise above the 69.50 level would confirm the pattern and push the ratio toward 74.56 at the 1.0 level. A ratio of 74 would mean that gold is clearly outperforming silver, directing capital from silver to gold as the primary store of value.
The price of gold is significant because even though the dollar remains strong and both metals weaken, gold would lose less than silver. If the dollar breaks its own channel and both metals begin to rise, gold would rise more strongly. In any case, the ratio favors gold.
Divergence, the possibility of EMA reclaiming, and the upward structural ratio all point in the same direction, making the price chart crucial.
Gold price levels that determine whether 5,000 dollars is achievable.
Gold is trading at 4,722 dollars. The critical resistance is at 4,852 dollars at the 0.5 Fibonacci level, just 2.72% above the current price. Here, the price rally on April 8 was rejected. A daily close above 4,852 dollars would confirm the breakout and bring the 5,000 dollar zone into consideration.
The first target area above 4,852 dollars is the 0.618 level at 5,030 dollars (the 5,000 dollar zone). Continued upward movement leads toward 5,283 dollars at the 0.786 level and eventually close to 5,605 dollars, which is the peak from January 29. For these targets to be possible, the DXY must fall below 98.52, and the gold-silver ratio must continue to rise above 69.50.
On the downside, the first support is at 4,674 dollars at the 0.382 level. Below that, support is found at 4,455 dollars at the 0.236 level. The March 23 low of 4,098 dollars remains the floor level. If the price drops below the previous swing low of 4,557 dollars, the RSI divergence will be nullified and the short-term outlook will shift to bearish.
According to the current chart, 4,852 dollars separates the confirmed breakout toward the 5,000 dollar zone and the ongoing correction toward 4,674 and the possible retest of the 4,455 dollar support.