Well CryptoCompanions, let's analyze yesterday's thriller — honestly, it felt like a live movie.
For those who missed it: yesterday was the famous Trump deadline, after which Iran was supposedly going to “enter hell” — attacks on infrastructure, power plants, oil facilities, etc. Throughout the day, Trump made very harsh statements about “destroying an entire civilization.” This caused panic in the U.S.: they started talking about the 25th Amendment, his mental state, even nuclear risks.
In the afternoon, tensions escalated even further: news came out that the bombers had already taken off from bases in the United Kingdom and that the attack was imminent. Images from Iran showed civilians forming human shields around key facilities. Everyone was preparing for an escalation.
And then, in the last hours, Pakistan appears with a proposal to postpone the attacks for two weeks. Trump initially rejects it, Macron calls an emergency meeting, the British begin to withdraw personnel — the tension is at its peak.
And suddenly… a ceasefire is announced for two weeks.
And here comes the most interesting part. If you were watching the market, everything was clear long before. Oil started to fall around 22:00 Moscow time — several hours before the official announcement. The indices began to rise.
In other words, the market discounted the positive scenario before the news. Oil fell from 112 to 103 even before the truce was confirmed. Classic: the news is for the masses, the movement is for those who watch the price.
In the end, we arrived exactly at the scenario I mentioned earlier. The only thing I was wrong about was the timing. I thought Trump would need 2–3 weeks, but everything was resolved in approximately a week.
Where are we now?
— ceasefire for 2 weeks
— the strait is open, but the conditions are unclear
— without clarity on the nuclear agreement
Iran says that the U.S. accepted a list of conditions, including compensations and payment passage for the strait. Honestly, I still wouldn't trust it. We need to see how it is implemented in practice.
That's why oil is now close to 90 and hasn't returned to 70. The market simply doesn't understand what the new rules of the game will be.
If we return to the pre-war scenario — we will probably see 70. If not — the current levels may be justified.
Another important point: if the strait had been blocked for 1–1.5 months, according to the IEA, the impact would have been worse than the energy crises of the 1970s and that of 2022 combined. In other words, the risk to the global economy was enormous. Luckily, it didn't come to that.
Now, about the prospects.
Honestly, I don't see many arguments for going back to an active phase of the conflict:
— Trump's rating has already fallen quite a bit and internal pressure in the U.S. is high
— Iran suffered serious damage, but maintained power and even strengthened internal control
Right now, neither side has a strong incentive to restart the escalation from scratch.
But we shouldn't relax — if the negotiations fail, everything can escalate again quickly.
So now the key is to observe the reaction of the markets:
oil, stocks, currencies.
After the European and U.S. sessions, we will have a clearer picture of sentiment.
For now — we are operating cautiously. Volatility can be high.
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