After watching the interview with Ying Ge for #易理华 I felt inspired.
The real @Jackyi is actually a steady, reliable, and logical person, not as crazy as those operations on-chain.
This reminds me of Yi Lihua going all in on ETH in 2025.
First, let's make a judgment: his macro narrative is actually not wrong. The four-year cycle has failed, the interest rate cut cycle has restarted, stablecoins and RWA on-chain have made ETH the cornerstone asset of on-chain finance, and Wall Street has completed its layout through the capital channel of U.S. Treasuries → stablecoins → ETH/L2—this framework is solidly written in Trend Research's report, not just a spur-of-the-moment thought. The operation of clearing positions before 1011 has indeed been done, and such consistency between words and actions is rare in the Chinese crypto circle.
But the problem lies in execution, not judgment.
First, leverage. Starting from $3,400 in November to catch the bottom, with an average price of $3,208, borrowing 887 million USDT from Aave, with 2x leverage. The 'hold on heavily' in the primary market and the 'hold on heavily' in the leveraged secondary market are two completely different games. The former tests vision and patience, while the latter tests liquidity management and the distance to the liquidation line. The premise of trend investing is that you can survive until the trend materializes; cyclical lending mortgages this premise away.
Second, publicly calling out the position. When your average price, liquidation line, and borrowing scale are known throughout the network, this in itself systematically worsens your win rate, giving shorts precise hunting coordinates.
Third, the psychological hook. He repeatedly tells the story of selling BTC at 312, 'I don't want to miss out on thousands of dollars for just a few hundred dollars'—this uses the trauma from the last time to suppress the risk control discipline that should be applied this time, which is very dangerous.
So the most valuable aspect of this trade is not 'he lost the bet', but it clearly shows:
The real value of this trade does not lie in winning or losing, but in demonstrating one thing: in the secondary market, when a KOL writes themselves into a position, their identity shifts from investor to the hostage of the narrative—the market is no longer trading ETH, but trading whether they can withstand it. The correctness of the macro narrative will only be answered in the second half of the year; however, the lessons from the execution level can be learned today.
Identify, heavily invest, and hold on; these eight characters are a methodology in the primary market, but they are the biggest weakness in the leveraged secondary market.
No matter what, it's still not too late to follow his bottom.$ETH
