American stock markets are rising after the sell-off in March, with three important signals indicating renewed confidence.
The rise comes after a volatile first quarter marked by the conflict between the USA and Iran, increasing oil prices, and broad risk-selling across stock and cryptocurrency markets.
The stock market shows signs of recovery
The Kobeissi Letter reported that S&P 500 has had its longest winning streak since October 2025. It has risen 8% from the bottom on March 30.
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In another post, analysts noted that approximately 65% of the stocks in Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, are now trading above their 10-day moving averages.
This number has increased by 40 points in just five trading days, the strongest rise since November. In the second week of March, only 12% of the shares were traded above the same average. This was the lowest share of at least six months.
The improvement applies not only to technology stocks. More than 70% of the stocks in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have also reclaimed their 10-day moving averages. This suggests that the rally is broadly based and not just driven by a few large companies.
Historically, the Nasdaq 100 has risen 80% of the time in the next 12 months after rallies of this size. This pattern provides a statistical backdrop for today's momentum.
«The market is poised for a historic rise», it stated in the post.
Insiders remain optimistic
Corporate leaders are also signaling confidence. In March, 26.4% of publicly traded companies in the U.S. had net insider purchases, the highest percentage in five months.
The figure rose from 20.9% in February and exceeded the ten-year average of 23.5%. This was the second consecutive month of increase in insider purchases.
«This is also above the ten-year average of 23.5%. Corporate leaders chose to buy back their own shares after last month's market drop, a sign of confidence in the rally,» wrote The Kobeissi Letter.
Not all sectors showed the same optimism. For the energy sector, the share of companies with net insider purchases fell by 1.6 percentage points to 17.5%. This decline suggests that leaders in this sector do not expect oil prices, which have been pushed up by the Iran conflict, to remain high over time.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee raises the bullish argument. He believes the market has reached the bottom, and that the S&P 500 could reach 7,300 this year, indicating significant upside from current levels. Lee noted that stocks showed strength even during the worst geopolitical unrest, with price increases even as oil prices rose.
Whether the rally continues and becomes a sustained recovery will depend on whether the ceasefire holds, and how quickly inflationary pressures from oil subside. Currently, the latest rally, breadth, and insider purchases collectively send a positive signal.
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