More than six months have passed since the October 2025 crash. The market is slowly becoming increasingly impatient and weary of the crisis. Over the past few weeks, more and more data and analyses have emerged suggesting an end to the negative trend and a transition to the next phase.
Michael Saylor's recent statement also brought considerable optimism. During his speech at the investor meeting, Mizuho assessed that $BTC likely bottomed out when it fell to $60,000. Saylor emphasized that market bottoms typically occur when sellers' strength has been exhausted, not when confidence returns. Furthermore, Saylor attributed the recent declines to mass liquidations among miners who used excessive leverage. He also pointed to the selling activity of so-called weak hands in the market. In his opinion, these factors have intensified selling pressure.
Furthermore, Saylor addressed the threat posed by quantum computers. Strategy's CEO believes the risk is remote and manageable. Saylor believes that even if the threat of quantum computers becomes real, Bitcoin's structure allows for updates that will dethrone the threats. While much data suggests that Bitcoin has indeed bottomed out, some analyses suggest a more cautious approach. Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, estimates that BTC has entered the final phase of a bear market. At the same time, he believes Bitcoin could still fall lower. Furthermore, the analyst argues that this period of volatility and uncertainty could persist for several more months.
Darkfost points out that at this stage, we are seeing pressure on long-term holders (LTH). As the analyst describes: "It typically starts with STH, which has already been under pressure for six months, before shifting towards LTH. This pattern repeats itself every cycle." To capture dynamics and changes, the expert advises monitoring the LTH SOPR (Spend Profit Ratio). This indicator helps determine whether users are experiencing losses or profits during the sell-off. This allows us to capture the overall trend. Currently, the 30-day moving average of the LTH SOPR remains below 1 (around 0.96). This result indicates losses for long-term Bitcoin holders. However, the annual average remains positive (1.71). As LTH begins to experience losses over the longer term, the market will be closer to entering an accumulation phase. #Bitcoin❗
