The $SOL cryptocurrency rebounded above $85 on Friday morning, partially recouping losses from Wednesday's rally. Despite a temporary rally, the coin remains below a key level – the 50-day moving average (SMA), maintaining the risk of further declines. According to data, Solana gained 4.5% and reached an intraday high of $85.20 before stabilizing around $83.

The rebound followed the broader market, as Bitcoin broke above $73,000. However, despite improved sentiment, SOL failed to break through important technical resistance.

On the daily chart, Solana has been trading within a broad range of $76–$92 since February. In the past two weeks, the coin has fallen to the lower end of this range and found itself below the 50-day SMA (currently around $86). Historically, a break below this average since October 2023 has regularly resulted in strong downward pressure. A Recurring Dangerous Pattern

Over the past six months, Solana has been repeating a very similar, three-stage pattern before each major decline:

A brief retracement above the 50-day SMA

A quick drop back below it + loss of support from previous highs

Consolidation phase ("trap") – sideways movement within a narrow range

This consolidation was usually followed by a strong breakout and the formation of a new local bottom.

Solana is currently in the second stage of this cycle – stuck in a consolidation between $79 and $81, below the 50-day SMA of $86. If the coin does not regain $86 in the coming days, there is a real risk of continued declines. Based on calculations based on previous cycles, another significant downward move could push Solana's price as low as $52.

What's next for the price

The current consolidation should not be interpreted as stabilization, but rather as a "spring tension" before the next downward move. Until Solana sustainably breaks above the 50-day SMA, the technical picture remains negative. However, the crypto market is volatile – a potential breakout of the resistance at $86 could invalidate the bearish setup and pave the way for a faster rebound. #solana $RAVE