Last night, the market held its breath waiting for the March CPI data, which finally emerged: the overall CPI soared 3.3% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected 2.4%; month-on-month, it even surged 0.9%, setting the highest record since May 2022. The spark for this fire was the energy index, which skyrocketed by 10.9%, with gasoline prices crazily soaring by 21.2%, as if we had returned to the 1960s.
In an instant, Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold" against inflation was ignited, and the price surged, briefly piercing the critical $73,000 threshold.
Core CPI only rose by 0.2% month-on-month, which was not only lower than the expected 0.3% but also the same as February.
The data reflecting contrasting scenarios has led Bitcoin to stage a spectacular 'rise and fall' roller coaster, quickly retreating from a high of $73000 to oscillate around $72000. In the past 24 hours, over 130,000 people have been liquidated in this long-short struggle, with a total amount reaching $387 million.
On one hand, the surge in energy prices will genuinely translate into higher living costs for the public, creating significant political pressure, and the alarm for controlling inflation cannot be lifted. On the other hand, the geopolitical conflicts that trigger the energy crisis themselves pose a threat to global economic growth, which provides a rationale for rate cuts.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates that there is a 98.4% probability of maintaining the interest rate in April. More importantly, the market has almost completely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut within 2026.
This means we are entering a new phase of 'Extended Rate Ceiling.' The market no longer fantasizes about a liquidity bonanza in the short term, but simultaneously believes that interest rates have peaked.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
The answer is: shackles. As long as interest rates remain high, the valuation ceiling for risk assets will be firmly locked. Without the tailwind of rate cuts, it will be significantly more challenging for Bitcoin to rely on grand narratives (such as ETF inflows) to independently emerge from a magnificent bull market. In the near future, Bitcoin's trend will be more constrained by the game of existing capital and technical guidance, rather than driven by macro liquidity.
From a technical analysis perspective, $73000-$75000 is recognized as the 'main target range' and a strong resistance zone. If the bulls can accumulate strength and effectively stabilize above this range, then after a brief consolidation, the possibility of launching an attack towards $80000 or even higher will significantly increase.
However, risks and opportunities coexist. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez has warned that once the price loses support and falls below the critical area of $63100, the market could quickly plunge into a 'liquidity vacuum.'
