On Saturday, the US stock market is closed, and the market is relatively quiet. We focus our attention back on Bitcoin's own movements.
This week, Bitcoin $BTC has made a rebound, currently standing above 72,000 again. However, from an overall structural perspective, this resembles a repair process during a downtrend rather than a trend reversal. The long cycle is still in a bear market phase. This mid-term rebound seems strong, but in essence, it is somewhat 'hollow', more about raising expectations and digesting emotions.
In the short term, there is still obvious resistance around 74,000, while the real key area is between 80,000 and 83,000, where there are a lot of trapped positions and dense cost areas from the previous period. One characteristic of a bear market is that it does not easily allow most people to break even. Once the price approaches this area, the selling pressure tends to be released quickly.
At the same time, be wary of a common rhythm — first a pump to squeeze the shorts, then a rapid drop. So, if the subsequent rebound approaches the 80k mark, it would actually be a more ideal risk-off position. Avoid blindly chasing the highs; the strategy here leans more towards high-level defense.
Let's take a look at market hotspots.
The drop in TAO has sparked quite a bit of discussion. The core of this round of correction isn’t about external opinions but rather the market's reassessment of its subnet mechanism's stability. If trust in the rule layer wavers, valuations will naturally come under pressure. However, from another angle, this drop has also released a lot of emotions, making it easier to enter a new game phase in the short term. The project’s direction hasn't been completely dismissed, but whether the incentive mechanism is sustainable remains a key focus moving forward.
On the altcoin front, sentiment on the BSC chain remains lively. Hot picks like 'Binance Life' have driven a rise in related assets, including GIGGLE. Essentially, it's all about capital circulating around consensus and hype. Such opportunities are better for pre-positioning rather than chasing after the emotional surge.
$ENA is a typical example of a bounce-back asset after being oversold. After the unlocking pressure has been released, it has short-term recovery potential. The characteristics of such coins are clear — they tend to have great elasticity when the market moves but are also more volatile, making them suitable for rhythmic participation rather than heavy bets.
Relatively speaking, mainstream assets like $LTC show a steadier trend. The current price is consolidating within a range, with technicals gradually repairing and signs of a bottom lift, but volume is lacking, so short-term focus remains on consolidation. The strategy here is better suited for low buys near support, waiting for the rhythm to play out.
Overall, the market is still in a consolidation and recovery phase. The general direction hasn’t changed, but the rhythm is constantly shifting. Instead of frequently chasing pumps and dumps, it’s better to patiently wait for key levels and go with the flow; this approach tends to be more stable.
The crypto market is volatile; enter with caution. This is just my personal opinion, not financial advice, just sharing.