๐ BTC funding rate negative for 46 consecutive days, historical signal or trap?
Data from K33 Research shows that the average 30-day funding rate of BTC perpetual has been negative for 46 consecutive days. This is extremely rare.
In history, this has only happened twice:
โ After the FTX crash at the end of 2022
โ During China's ban on coin mining in the middle of 2021
And the most notable point I see: both previous instances were followed by a significant rally of BTC.
Currently, BTC is trading around 74,000 USD but has yet to break the resistance at 76,000. Meanwhile, Goolsbee from the Fed warns that if oil prices remain high, interest rate cuts may have to wait until 2027. The macro situation is not easy at all.
๐ Personal assessment:
โ Prolonged negative funding means that the short side is paying fees to the long side, and the market is leaning towards pessimism.
โ However, this is also the period when short squeezes are most likely to occur; just one break of 76k will trigger a cascade of short orders.
โ I am not in a hurry to buy the dip, waiting for confirmation of momentum and actual volume.
History does not repeat itself entirely but often rhymes. Which scenario are you leaning towards, a new rally or another deep pullback?
$BTC $ETH #BtcNegFunding46Days
Data from K33 Research shows that the average 30-day funding rate of BTC perpetual has been negative for 46 consecutive days. This is extremely rare.
In history, this has only happened twice:
โ After the FTX crash at the end of 2022
โ During China's ban on coin mining in the middle of 2021
And the most notable point I see: both previous instances were followed by a significant rally of BTC.
Currently, BTC is trading around 74,000 USD but has yet to break the resistance at 76,000. Meanwhile, Goolsbee from the Fed warns that if oil prices remain high, interest rate cuts may have to wait until 2027. The macro situation is not easy at all.
๐ Personal assessment:
โ Prolonged negative funding means that the short side is paying fees to the long side, and the market is leaning towards pessimism.
โ However, this is also the period when short squeezes are most likely to occur; just one break of 76k will trigger a cascade of short orders.
โ I am not in a hurry to buy the dip, waiting for confirmation of momentum and actual volume.
History does not repeat itself entirely but often rhymes. Which scenario are you leaning towards, a new rally or another deep pullback?
$BTC $ETH #BtcNegFunding46Days