On April 15, the S&P 500 index closed above the 7000-point mark for the first time, finishing at 7022.95 points; the Nasdaq recorded an impressive 11 consecutive trading days of gains. On the same day, Bitcoin briefly surged past $76,000 before stabilizing above $74,000.
Trump publicly stated that the US-Iran conflict is "very close to ending", which injected a strong dose of confidence into the market. Transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually resuming, with WTI crude oil plummeting 6% in a single day to $92, and inflation expectations rapidly cooling.
Risk assets are reacting—US stocks are hitting new highs and Bitcoin is rebounding, everything seems to be looking up.
But Citi strategists poured cold water on it: this rebound is essentially an "emotional repair," rather than a structural resolution of core risks. In plain terms—confidence is back, but the landmines are still there.
This conflict between the US and Iran unexpectedly became a "stress test" for Bitcoin's pricing logic. It has shown strikingly different faces at different stages.
Phase one: when conflict breaks out, it acts as a "risk asset." As missiles launch, Bitcoin crashes alongside US stocks, behaving just like tech stocks.
Phase two: the consolidation phase, where it transforms into an "institutional safe-haven asset." Spot ETFs are seeing continuous inflows, with institutional capital treating it as one of the tools for hedging geopolitical risks. Data shows that on April 14 alone, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs was about $786 million.
Phase three: as expectations for a ceasefire rise, it transforms again into a "neutral settlement layer." It rises alongside US stocks, seeming to act as a barometer for global liquidity.
Analyst Nic Puckrin puts it bluntly: "Bitcoin's current recovery is fragile. The market trend in Q2 2026 will be dominated by geopolitical pressures in the Middle East and macroeconomic stresses."
This isn't something that can be explained by the singular positioning of "digital gold." Bitcoin is evolving into a more complex and diverse asset class—it possesses risk attributes, safe-haven characteristics, and liquidity sensitivity. Which role it plays depends on the external environment.
Don't celebrate too early.
Although the US and Iran have reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, the core disagreements remain vast. The US demands Iran permanently freeze its nuclear program, while Iran insists on nuclear sovereignty, with the two sides' demands being completely at odds. The negotiations are likely to hit a deadlock, with a high possibility of "dual-track diplomacy."
On April 22, the temporary ceasefire is set to expire, and if negotiations become stalled again, the market may face a second shock.
If geopolitical tensions escalate again, can Bitcoin hold above $70,000? On-chain data shows strong support around $67,600, but if panic sets in, the technical support levels may not hold.
Gold not dropping indicates that the market still has room for geopolitical risks; Bitcoin rising alongside US stocks suggests it has been incorporated into the framework of "global liquidity beneficiary assets."
"Gold hedges against inflation and tail risks, while Bitcoin captures liquidity premiums."
From the data, the rolling 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold in early April 2026 was -0.31, indicating structural divergence in their movements. Gold is driven by central bank purchases and sovereign risks, while Bitcoin is more sensitive to liquidity conditions.
Late April will be the true test for Bitcoin's price.
