1/ Bittensor (TAO)
Marketcap: $2.46 billion (rank #40, +5.97% 24h)
FDV: $5.39 billion
Volume 24h: $276 million (Volume/MC ratio ~11.2%)
Price Drop: Down approximately 66.5% from ATH $757.60 (March 2024)
Lowest price: ATL $30.83 (May 2023); recent low ~$230-234 (April 10-11, 2026 after flash crash Covenant AI exit)
Upcoming important event:
Subnet Capacity Expansion to 256 subnets (April 2026 – currently rolling out)
Governance Proposal BIT-0011: Locked Stake mechanism (Q2/2026)
Continue developing dTAO + enterprise AI adoption (Intel partnership & new subnets)
Ongoing AMA & developer updates on X official
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2/ Coin Unlock Schedule: No traditional unlock cliff. Bittensor uses a continuous inflationary emission model (daily rewards for miners/validators). The first halving occurred in December 2025, current emission is ~3,600 TAO/day (value ~920k USD/day). No sudden dilution pressure expected in the next 6-12 months, but issuance still creates periodic selling pressure from reward distribution.
MoneyFlow - Onchain: Extremely strong subnet activity (hundreds of AI tasks running), high staking ratio, stable active validators/miners. Recent netflow mixed: significant outflow from some subnet operators (e.g., Covenant AI dumped ~37k TAO on 04/10/2026), but whale/smart money is accumulating at low levels. Realized profit/loss fluctuated significantly after the flash crash, holder distribution remains focused long-term on core contributors & ecosystem.
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3/ Professional Technical Analysis for the Crypto market:
Multi-timeframe analysis (4H, Daily, Weekly):
Market Structure: Clear short-term downtrend after a flash crash of 22-25% on 04/10/2026 (from ~$330 to ~$240). Currently consolidating sideways in the $240-260 range.
Key Support/Resistance: Strong support: $230-240 (recent low + liquidity grab). Resistance: $260-280 → $300.
EMA/SMA: Price is below EMA50 & EMA200 on Daily (bearish crossover still maintained).
RSI/MACD: RSI ~45-52 (neutral, exiting oversold after crash), MACD histogram is narrowing but momentum has not clearly reversed.
Volume Profile: Very high volume spike on the crash day → gradually decreasing during the consolidation phase, indicating a lack of strong bullish conviction.
Fibonacci/Order Block/Liquidity Grab: Price is at the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement from the last swing high; strong order block around $240-250; liquidity grab occurred in the $230-234 range.
Chart Pattern:Potential falling wedge on 4H, but overall still within a short-term bearish channel after governance drama.
Scenario:
Bullish (probability ~45%): Break & close above $260 with increasing volume + news subnet expansion → target $280-320 (requires macro AI crypto support).
Bearish (probability ~55%): Drop below $230 → target $200-210 (emission pressure + prolonged FUD governance).
Chart Drawing: The current trend is consolidation after a strong flash crash, prices are moving sideways around $240-260 with high volatility. Professional candlestick charts (Daily + 4H) have been fully drawn with important support/resistance lines, EMA 50-200, RSI, MACD, Volume, Order Block, and Liquidity Grab.
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4/ HYPE level on X and call groups: High hype level in the AI crypto segment but mixed sentiment after the Covenant AI exit drama (04/10/2026). Mentions surged, KOLs divided: one side supports fundamentals DeAI + subnet expansion, the other side concerns about governance & centralization. On X official @bittensor activity is high with subnet updates. In call/signal groups on Telegram/Discord (VN & global) mainly long-term discussions about decentralized intelligence, few short-term pump calls, focus on governance vote Q2/2026.
Overall assessment: Bittensor remains the leading project in the Decentralized AI space with a strong subnet network and practical utility, but is under significant price pressure from recent governance drama + periodic emission + short-term bearish technical structure. Risk: High (extreme volatility, dependent on governance and macro AI narrative).
Disclaimer: This article is purely informational, not investment advice, data provided from various sources at the time of writing, complies with NQ05 and the regulations of the Vietnamese government. #TAO #Bittensor #TA #CryptoVN #DeAI