Is everyone shouting "the bull is back"? What's going on? #ORDI is back again?

Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market suddenly became lively, with voices like "the bull market is back", "the altcoin season is restarting", and "ORDI is back" flooding social media. Many people were excited after seeing the gain leaderboard, believing that the long-awaited bull market signal had finally appeared. Although Bitcoin's market share remains high, some well-established and recently popular coins saw astonishing gains in just one day, creating a briefly optimistic atmosphere in the market.

However, a closer look at the data reveals that this seems more like a pulse-style explosion of a few assets in a low liquidity environment, rather than a comprehensive bullish trend. Bitcoin still dominates, with funds mainly concentrated on a few clearly controlled and previously deeply corrected targets. Most altcoins remain in a state of thin liquidity and have not yet welcomed a real turnaround.

This article systematically analyzes the market gainers list from April 16, focusing on the explosive performances of ORDI, NEIRO, ACT, MERL, BASED, and other established and recently popular coins, combining narrative drivers, capital behavior, and market sentiment to reveal the true logic behind this seemingly lively local festivity.

$ORDI's performance & narrative

ORDI, as a signature BRC-20 token of the Bitcoin Ordinals protocol, surged quickly from around $3.4 to $9.68 yesterday, hitting a high of $10.7 during the day, with a single-day increase of over 184%, and the 24-hour trading volume significantly expanded to about $249 million. This coin, which once shone during the inscription craze, suddenly erupted after a long period of deep correction (down over 98% from its historical peak), reigniting discussions about 'Bitcoin ecosystem recovery' and 'BRC-20's return to the throne.' On-chain whales continue to accumulate, the spot depth is extremely thin, and shorts are forced to cover, further amplifying price elasticity. In the market sentiment, the call of 'ORDI is back' is the loudest, and many traders feel as if they have returned to the glorious moments of 2023-2024.

$NEIRO's performance & narrative

NEIRO, an early dog-themed meme coin, has also performed exceptionally well, with a single-day increase of over 312%, pulling itself up from a low position to multiple times its value, with trading volume nearly 8 times that of the previous day. NEIRO had accumulated significant popularity in 2024 due to its community culture and viral spread, and after a long period of silence, it quickly rebounded yesterday, riding the wave of 'old memes revival.' The heat of related topics on social media has noticeably increased, and the accumulation of chips by some whales has also provided support for the rise, triggering strong FOMO emotions. Many are beginning to discuss whether NEIRO will recreate the viral glory of previous years.

$ACT's performance & narrative

ACT has excelled under the narrative of AI and infrastructure, with a single-day increase approaching 248%, hitting new highs multiple times during the day. As one of the earlier projects in the AI field, ACT has previously seen a deep decline due to sector rotation, with its historical peak now over a year past and maximum drawdown exceeding 94%. A small amount of capital's intervention yesterday brought significant elasticity, with negative funding rates and short-squeeze effects playing a key role in the rise. The market views this as one of the signals of a short-term warming of the AI narrative.

$MERL's performance & narrative

MERL, as the token of the Bitcoin Layer 2 project Merlin Chain, has seen a single-day increase of over 176%. The overall atmosphere of the Bitcoin ecosystem has warmed as geopolitical risks ease, and MERL itself has a small circulating supply and has previously experienced significant overselling (with market cap shrinking over 90%), making it one of the choices during capital rotation, re-entering market visibility. The narrative of 'BTC Layer 2 revival' has provided a catalyst for MERL's rise, with some traders believing this signals a phase opportunity for Bitcoin ecosystem-related assets.

$BASED's performance & narrative

As a project that has recently gained traction on the Base chain through a combination of culture and practicality, BASED saw an increase of over 265% yesterday, sharing a significant trading volume with several other assets on the gainers' list. BASED has previously demonstrated strong community vitality and meme attributes, becoming a direct beneficiary of profit-taking capital spilling out from Bitcoin's high volatility zone due to its low market cap and high-beta characteristics. In the market sentiment, the voices of 'Based culture exploding again' are gradually increasing.

Market sentiment and multidimensional observation

Today, the emotions on social media have noticeably heated up. The call for a 'return of the bulls' has led many to discuss whether the altcoin season has truly begun, with fear and greed indices also showing some signs of warming up. However, the overall consensus in the market remains relatively cautious and divided: although the social media hype has rapidly escalated in the short term, some traders are hopeful for a rebound in old coins, but Bitcoin's market dominance still hovers around 56%-58%, and the altcoin season index is only in the range of 34-40, far from the standard for a comprehensive upswing (which usually requires the index to exceed 70 and a significant decline in Bitcoin's dominance).

Most analysts believe that this wave of market activity is more about profit-taking capital rotating into high-beta assets during Bitcoin's high volatility period, as well as a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions leading to a recovery in risk appetite, rather than a trend reversal driven by new large-scale capital entering the market. A true altcoin season still requires a significant weakening of Bitcoin's dominance and confirmation of more sustained incremental capital.

The support for this wave of local prosperity mainly comes from the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions and the precise grasp of the short-term market environment by some large holders. They seem to judge that the main conflicts will not escalate sharply in the near term, thus seizing this window of rising risk appetite to deploy funds in a relatively fragile liquidity environment, driving a few high-elasticity assets to rise rapidly.

In addition, one can enrich the thinking about the market from more dimensions. For example, the linkage between macro aspects and oil prices and inflation data is worth attention; this geopolitical easing has directly driven oil prices down, reducing overall inflation pressure and creating a more favorable external environment for risk assets. On-chain data shows that some project whale addresses are becoming more active, and the concentration of holdings is further increasing, which both supports the rise and sows the seeds for future selling pressure. Compared to historical cycles, this pattern of 'collective rebound of severely undervalued old coins' has appeared multiple times in the past, often signaling sector rotation rather than the start of a comprehensive bull market. Regulatory dynamics and changes in futures positions and funding rates also provide additional references for judging market sustainability. Looking ahead, if geopolitical tensions re-emerge or macro data exceed expectations, volatility may quickly amplify, and investors need to prepare for position management and risk control in advance.

Local festivities do not equate to the restart of a bull market.

Yesterday's gainers list momentarily excited the market. The story of 'ORDI is back' and 'the collective revival of old coins' sounds inspiring, but essentially, this remains a high-frequency pulse of specific low-market-cap assets in a liquidity vacuum, and does not equate to a full restart of the bull market. A true altcoin season requires a significant reduction in Bitcoin's dominance and a sustained inflow of new capital; the current conditions are still insufficient.

For participants, it is advised to focus on changes in trading volume, on-chain chip distribution, and funding rates, maintain rationality, and avoid purely chasing the rising sentiment. Market conditions change rapidly; controlling positions and risks while continuously observing market signals is essential to better grasp opportunities amidst volatility.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks; please conduct your own research and independently bear the consequences.