The price of RaveDAO (رافداو) has tested the $20 peak again after a rebound, which may help form a double top giving the bears control during hours of weakening momentum.
The momentum indicators are diverging, and the open interest has reached nearly record levels, with blockchain data indicating a distribution. Each individual signal increases the likelihood of a pullback towards Fibonacci support in the mid-cycle.
Open interest shows a delayed warning in the cycle.
Open interest on Ravdao rose from near zero on April 9 to a peak of $510 million on April 13, according to Coinglass data, and subsequent data showed a separation into two lower peaks.
The current figure stands close to $500 million as Ravdao's price attempts to rise towards $19. However, the figure is still slightly below the record set on April 13 despite the spot price reaching new highs.
This gap indicates that leveraged participation weakens with each attempt to rise. In perpetual markets, a drop in open margin often precedes long liquidation sequences as the price rises.
Until this view changes, open interest must exceed $510 million with a decisive move above $20, and until then, the risk in trading positions remains tilted towards the downside.
The scene supports the blockchain in a bullish stance at first, as Arkham data shows Ravdao leaving platforms almost continuously every hour for 24 consecutive sessions. The net cumulative flows reached about 40,000 tokens.
At current prices near $17.89, those withdrawals represent about $700,000 of immediate assets that left trading platforms. Historically, external flows indicate accumulation and a decrease in selling inventory.
However, conditions complicate this interpretation. Previous BIC analysis indicated a retest of the $20 level itself. Over the past seven days, the token price has risen over 6,000%, and large holders frequently transfer profits to cold wallets near local peaks.
The figure for external flows of $700,000 is minor compared to the open interest of $500 million. This difference confirms that the current price drivers are not immediate demand, but perpetual contracts.
The price of RAVE retested the $20 level on the Bitget chart for a one-hour interval. The previous upward trend line was broken on April 15, and since then it has acted as resistance three times. The price reached a daily high of $19.30 in the last attempt.
The relative strength index currently shows a reading of 68.5, which is below the reading of 72 during the first peak at $20. A bearish crossover is also seen on the moving average convergence/divergence indicator on the hourly chart. Both signals indicate weakness in momentum.
If the double top (blue circles) is confirmed, the measured movement targets align with Fibonacci retracement levels on the chart. There is a 0.236 level at $15.34, forming the initial downside target.
A deeper downward wave could push RAVE towards a correction of 0.382 at $12.46 or a pivot point of 0.5 at $10.13. Either of these levels would constitute a significant reset from the current price and provide a clearer picture for future currency forecasts.
The bearish scenario is invalidated if a clean close above $20 on the one-hour interval occurs. The expansion of open interest to $510 million confirmed that reversal. Without both, the onus of proof remains on the buyers.