What is the role of the Strait of Hormuz currently?$USDC

Strait of Hormuz
About 20% of the world's oil and a large amount of gas pass through it from the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran).

This means that any tension in it directly affects energy prices and the global economy.

Can it be dispensed with in the future?

The short answer: it cannot be completely dispensed with, but the world is indeed trying to find alternatives to reduce reliance on it.

Let's look at the important alternatives 👇

1️⃣ Pipeline lines to bypass the strait (the main alternative)

Gulf countries have been working for years on transporting oil by land instead of sea.

Main lines:

  • East-West line in Saudi Arabia
    Saudi Aramco
    Transports oil from the Gulf to the Red Sea (Yanbu port).
    This means oil can exit directly via:

    • The Red Sea

    • Then:
      Suez Canal

  • UAE pipeline to Fujairah port outside the strait.

These projects have a clear goal:
➡️ Reduce dependence on Hormuz in case of war or closure.

But the capacity of these lines still doesn't cover all the oil.

2️⃣ Alternative maritime corridors

Even global shipping is thinking of diversifying routes:

  • Suez Canal + Red Sea

  • India-Europe corridor project via the Gulf, Israel, and Europe (a major geopolitical project)

But the problem:
⚠️ Gulf oil must first exit from the Gulf... and here the Hormuz Strait remains important.

3️⃣ Energy transition (the biggest long-term alternative)

The biggest real solution is to reduce dependence on oil altogether:

  • Renewable energies

  • Electric vehicles

  • Green hydrogen

As oil demand decreases ➜ the importance of Hormuz decreases.

The key takeaway

In case of closure or risk in the Hormuz Strait:

Short term:

  • There will be reliance on pipelines + global inventory

  • Prices will rise sharply

Medium term:

  • Expansion of pipeline lines

  • Increase in alternative energy projects

Long term:
👉 The importance of the strait will gradually decrease
But its role won't disappear soon because it is the largest oil gateway in the world.

If you want, I can explain the economic scenario:
What will happen to oil prices and the global economy if the strait actually closes? 💡


After opening the passage, will it lead to a decrease in gasoline and diesel in the market?


Important question 👍

If you mean reopening the Hormuz Strait after tension or temporary closure, the answer is:

Yes, likely the price of gasoline and diesel may decrease... but under conditions 👇

🔹 Why might the price drop?

Because:

  • Oil passage returns to normal

  • Market fear decreases

  • Speculation calms down

  • Refining companies return to normal supply

Usually, global oil prices drop immediately after tensions ease.

🔸 But... will it drop immediately in Morocco?

In Morocco, the price is linked to:

  1. Global oil price

  2. Dollar price

  3. Transportation and refining costs

  4. Margins of distribution companies

⏳ Therefore, the decline is not immediate, but:

  • It takes two weeks to a month to show at the stations

  • Unless the decline is significant and sustained

⚠️ Important point

If the previous rise was only due to temporary fear, then after the passage opens likely:
✔️ Oil decreases
✔️ Gasoline and diesel gradually decrease

However, if there are:

  • Widespread war

  • Sanctions on producing countries

  • Global production shortage

So the price may remain high.

Simple summary:

🔵 Opening the passage = Less pressure on the market
🟢 Likely a decrease in prices
🟡 But not immediately or 100% guaranteed

If you want, I can calculate approximately how much the liter might drop if oil decreases by, say, 10 dollars 👌


Gold market


The gold market is directly linked to any global tension or problems in energy supplies like we talked about regarding the Hormuz Strait.

Let me give you the clear picture 👇

Why does gold move with crises?

Gold is called a safe haven.
This means when fear grips the world, people flee to gold to preserve their wealth.

Main reasons:

  • Wars and geopolitical tensions

  • Rise in oil and energy

  • Weakening dollar

  • Inflation

The relationship between gold, the Hormuz Strait, and oil

If tension occurs in the Hormuz Strait:

  1. Oil is rising

  2. Inflation is rising

  3. Market fear is increasing

  4. Investors are buying gold

➡️ The result: Gold likely rises.

But if:

  • The situation has calmed down

  • Oil has decreased

  • Confidence has returned to the markets

➡️ Gold often decreases or stabilizes.

What happens to gold after the passage opens?

Usually this scenario occurs:

Immediately after the strait opens:

  • Fear decreases

  • Oil calms down

  • The dollar usually strengthens

👉 Expected outcome:
🔻 Downward pressure on gold

But the decline is:

  • Gradual and not a collapse

  • Because the world still has many tensions

Why won't gold collapse?

Even if the passage opens:

  • Global wars are still ongoing

  • Global inflation is still high

  • Central banks are aggressively buying gold

For example:

  • Chinese central bank

  • Russian central bank

This keeps gold strong in the long term.

The summary

After opening the Hormuz Strait:

Short term:
⬇️ Gold might drop slightly

Medium term:
↔️ remains volatile

Long term:
⬆️ The overall trend is still bullish