I just looked at the latest vessel traffic data for the Strait of Hormuz, and the numbers are striking. Only a handful of ships are moving through the waterway just before its scheduled reopening. On February 28, there was just 1 oil tanker, 5 LNG carriers, 2 container ships, and 1 bulk carrier. By March, the numbers improved slightly (3 oil tankers, 2 LPG, 1 LNG, 1 container, 1 bulk), and April shows a similar low level.
Let’s be honest. This is a fraction of normal traffic. The Strait of Hormuz usually sees dozens of vessels per day, carrying nearly 20% of the world’s oil. But since the Iran conflict escalated, traffic has collapsed. Even with talks of reopening, the chart shows that shippers are still hesitant. Only the bravest or most desperate are transiting.
From my point of view, this limited traffic reflects lingering fear. Even if the ceasefire holds, insurance costs are sky-high, and crews are reluctant to sail through a potential war zone. The "reopening" might be more symbolic than functional. Until we see oil tanker counts back in the double digits, the market will price in a risk premium.
What does this mean for oil prices? Limited traffic means limited supply. Even with the US exporting record volumes, any disruption in Hormuz keeps a floor under crude. For crypto, higher oil means higher inflation, which means the Fed stays hawkish. That’s a headwind.
I’m watching the daily vessel counts closely. When we see 10+ oil tankers again, that’s the signal that confidence is returning. Until then, the Strait remains a bottleneck and a risk.
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