This week's rebound seems lively, but from on-chain data, institutions have quietly begun to withdraw.
Recently, the hundred-billion-level asset management giants have continuously reduced their holdings of BTC, with almost every time being at the level of hundreds of millions of dollars, even accelerating sales when market sentiment was at its peak. It should be noted that most of these chips came from the bottom near $60,000, and now choosing to cash out in batches at high levels seems more like utilizing rebounds to distribute, rather than continuing to be bullish.
In simple terms: now it's more retail investors chasing, while institutions are selling; don’t get the roles reversed.
From a macro perspective, the current rebound seems more like a phase of repair, rather than a trend reversal. On one hand, the 'positive expectations' from the geopolitical situation have already been priced in, while on the other hand, macro pressures (employment, liquidity) have not truly eased. Before true easing arrives, the big-level market remains questionable. Therefore, even if there is still room for further highs later, it is likely to be the 'final segment' driven by sentiment.
Looking at the market,
The upper area near 76,000 for Bitcoin is still a strong resistance zone, with the extreme possibly pushing up to around 78,000 to form a false breakout, followed by a correction rhythm. Strategically, instead of chasing high positions, it is better to patiently wait for a weakening signal after a peak and gradually build positions for safety. The short-term rebound has already been significant, and the need for a pullback objectively exists.
Structurally, BTC and ETH have already stood above MA120 again, providing some mainstream coins with room for a rebound, such as DOGE, SOL, XRP, LINK, and SUI, which show signs of accumulation. The current more ideal rhythm is for mainstream coins to oscillate at high positions, allowing funds to rotate into other sectors, creating an atmosphere of "bull market return," but this feels more like a phased market rather than the initiation of a full bull market.
In terms of funding, the hotspots are still concentrated on a few high-control coins and emotional indicators, such as "Binance Life" and projects like RAVE with extreme trends, which are essentially chip-driven speculative markets; technical analysis is basically ineffective. Meanwhile, some projects with significant unlocking pressure (like WLD, TRUMP) can easily be hedged against positive news by selling pressure, making it more suitable to observe rather than chase highs.
In this wave of market, "Binance Life" has already reached new highs, which can be seen as fulfilling previous expectations. How much room is left will actually depend more on market sentiment; operationally, it is more suitable to watch while walking rather than blindly chasing highs.
On the same line, $GIGGLE's rhythm is obviously half a beat slower, more of a follow-up to the leading coins' rebound logic. It’s unrealistic to completely replicate the trend, but while sentiment is still present, there is still room for speculation. However, these types of coins are highly volatile, and both position and mindset should be light; the profit lies in the rhythm, not in faith.
From a structural perspective, $HNT has completed a rounded bottom breakout and has stood above the key neckline, indicating a gradual shift from long-term oscillation to trend expansion. It is currently in a pullback confirmation stage; if it can stabilize above the breakout level, there will be room for further upward movement; once it breaks down, it will need to digest the selling pressure before discussing trend continuation.
$RENDER here needs to be cautious, overall leaning towards a head and shoulders structure, indicating a potential weakening pattern. However, the right shoulder phase often still has a period of upward space, making this a window for gradually building short positions. It’s better to wait for a rebound to the resistance zone before shorting, and if you're a bit more aggressive, you can also go long in the trend, but be sure to enter and exit quickly.
$PEPE's trend is relatively cleaner, operating along an upward channel, continuing to rise after holding the mid-axis position and increasing volume, representing a typical trend continuation structure. This kind of market relies on patience and execution rather than frequent operations.
Overall, the keywords for this round of market are only two: rotation + selling. There is indeed an upward trend, but the rhythm is getting faster and the differentiation is becoming more obvious. Instead of frequently chasing hotspots, it is better to control positions and wait for certain opportunities.
Summary:
This wave feels more like the "excitement at the end of a rebound" rather than the starting point of a new cycle. Real opportunities often appear after the emotional tide recedes.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; entering the market requires caution; personal views, not advice, for sharing purposes only.