The core driving force behind this wave of market activity stems from the sudden cooling of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran has announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels, and Trump has stated that 'Iran will not have nuclear weapons,' with these two significant signals directly releasing pressure on global risk assets.
Market data shows that Bitcoin has surged past $78,000 in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum has also broken through $2,400, with mainstream cryptocurrencies rising collectively by over 3%. However, beneath the surface of prosperity, the contract market is in turmoil—over 168,700 people across the network have been liquidated, with liquidation amounts exceeding $700 million, of which nearly 80% are short positions.
This is the brutal law of the crypto market: bullish sentiment rises first, shorts get wiped out, but a real trend reversal requires sustained buying from institutions. Recently, Strategy invested $2.6 billion to increase their Bitcoin position, Goldman Sachs submitted its first Bitcoin ETF application, and Morgan Stanley launched its own Bitcoin tracking ETF—traditional financial giants haven’t slowed their entry due to short-term volatility.
Countering the geopolitical tailwinds is the macro-level cold water. CME FedWatch shows a 98.4% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in April, with a zero chance of rate cuts. More noteworthy is the upcoming change in the Fed Chair; Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, has over $100 million in crypto exposure, but if confirmed, he must divest within six months—market pricing for this complex variable is far from complete.
However, the signals coming from the regulatory side are clearly bullish. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins publicly stated in the official first podcast that the U.S. should become the preferred destination for cryptocurrency innovation, shifting regulation to an 'innovation-first' approach. Under his leadership, actions against Ripple, Coinbase, Binance, and others have been withdrawn or concluded, resulting in a 22% drop in SEC enforcement actions. On April 17, the SEC released new guidelines, easing self-custody rules for crypto assets and clarifying compliance paths for non-custodial wallets and DeFi interfaces.
The shift from 'enforcement regulation' to 'framework guidance' represents a structural bullish signal for this cycle, reflecting the underlying logic of U.S. regulation.