Oil futures pricing like Iran and Gulf tensions never existed.

Market's either:

• Fully priced in the geopolitical risk

• Betting on zero supply disruption

• Ignoring macro entirely (classic late-cycle behavior)

This disconnect matters for crypto. Oil stability = no immediate inflation shock = Fed stays predictable = risk-on can continue.

But if this is complacency and not conviction, any flare-up sends everything into a tailspin. Watch crude closely—it's your early warning system for macro risk repricing.

Right now? Markets are numb. That's either genius or dangerous.