Many investors are obsessed with 'Morning Star', 'Cloud Cover', or frequently adjusting MACD parameters, trying to predict the future. But in today's world dominated by computers and quantitative algorithms, these traditional morphologies based on human brain recognition (Quantitative 1.0) have long been dimensionally reduced by Wall Street's supercomputers (Quantitative 3.0).
If you want to avoid ten years of detours, you need to discard fancy tricks and cultivate internal skills like a 'heavy sword'.
💡 Two core mentalities (axioms).
Dog-Person Theory (Value Reversion): Value is the person, price is the dog. The dog may call forward and backward, but it is tied with a rope called 'law of value'. Price may deviate from value in the short term, but will eventually return.
Pendulum Effect (Overvolatility): What drives short-term prices is human nature (greed and fear), not rationality. Price fluctuations are not linear but pendulum-like; the further it swings, the stronger the force of return.
🛠️ The only tools needed: Trend + Moving Average.
Technical analysis is not meant to 'predict the future', but serves as a 'dashboard' to judge position, direction, and sentiment.
Moving Averages (Annual Line/250-Day Line): Represents the central value. When moving averages go up, it indicates that people are climbing, and the fundamentals are improving.
Deviation: When the price is significantly above the moving average, it is overly optimistic (the rope is tight, and there is pressure for a pullback); when it is significantly below the moving average, it is overly pessimistic (there is rebound momentum).
⚔️ Ultimate Sword Technique: Follow the trend, go against the small matters.
Follow the trend: Only buy assets that are rising on the monthly or annual lines, ensuring you are in good companies where 'people are moving up'.
Go against small matters: Utilize pullbacks on smaller scales (daily/weekly). When the major trend is up, and the small pendulum swings back near the moving average pivot due to short-term panic, that's the real 'opportunity to build a position'.
⚠️ Fatal Limitation: Don't just look at the dog.
Technical analysis can only see 'dogs' (price) and 'ropes' (moving averages), but cannot see the health status of 'people' (value).
Internal skills (fundamentals) as the foundation: Spend 80% of the time studying business models, moats, and financial authenticity.
Techniques (Technical Aspect) as a supplement: The fundamental aspect determines 'what to buy', and the technical aspect determines 'when to buy'.
Summary: Discard various complex indicators and return to the starting point of price fluctuations around value. A heavy sword has no edge, great skill is not contrived.
🛠️ Recommended more popular modern analytical tools.
If you have realized the limitations of traditional standalone indicators, it is recommended to try the following tools that are more in line with modern quantitative and deep analysis logic:
TradingView (most recommended):
Reason: Currently the most popular charting tool globally, supporting powerful Pine Script scripting, allowing users to write their own or use quantitative tracking strategies developed by community experts, far more accurate than outdated KDJ/RSI.
Glassnode / CryptoQuant (for cryptocurrencies):
Reason: Provides 'on-chain data' analysis. This corresponds to the 'internal skills' mentioned in the video, observing real data such as large holder positions and exchange inflows and outflows to see where 'people' are actually going.
DEXTools / Dexscreener (for highly volatile tokens):
Reason: Provides real-time liquidity, pool changes, and buy/sell pressure analysis, allowing for a more intuitive view of the 'momentum' (strength) mentioned in the video.
Nansen:
Reason: Marking the movements of 'Smart Money'. Instead of researching sorcery yourself, it is better to track what institutions using supercomputers for arbitrage are doing.
Suggestion: You can continue to use Bollinger Bands and MACD to assist in observing the 'pull of the rope', but as mentioned in the text, please treat them as deviation indicators, not the sole predictive signal for buying and selling.
#MACD #K线艺术家 #技术分析 #均线大师 #趋势分析
