Authored by: Aloosh666 with artificial intelligence for the famous Deepseek model ..
When oil meets Bitcoin ???
Bitcoin movements have always been linked to geopolitical events, but what happened this week was exceptional by all standards. Iran's opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping was not just a passing news story, but the spark that ignited a collective rise in cryptocurrency markets, pushing Bitcoin to surpass the $78,000 barrier for the first time in over two months. This movement did not come out of nowhere, but is the culmination of weeks of quiet accumulation and cautious anticipation from both 'whales' and major institutions.
Senior analyst at 21Shares, Matt Mina, accurately summarized the scene when he said that 'the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is the risk signal that global markets have been waiting for.' Indeed, the wave was not limited to Bitcoin alone, but extended to include Ethereum, which jumped above $2,400, and Ripple, which recorded weekly gains exceeding 10%, in a rare scene we last witnessed in January.
Exchange-traded funds: one and a half billion in a week
What makes this wave different from previous ones is the nature of the buyers. In just one week, U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds attracted net inflows of about $1.27 billion, their best weekly performance since mid-January. Bitcoin funds alone attracted nearly $996 million, while Ethereum funds garnered $275 million, a clear signal that major financial institutions are returning strongly to the arena after months of hesitation.
Interestingly, this institutional momentum has not been limited to major cryptocurrencies. Ripple funds saw inflows of $55 million, and Solana funds $35 million, confirming that institutional appetite for risk is beginning to extend beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin forecasts for this week: $78,000... A gateway to $90,000?
The question on everyone’s mind now: Is this rise sustainable? The answer is not simple, but the technical indicators paint an interesting picture. A weekly close above $78,000 is crucial in every sense of the word. In technical analysis, a close above this level confirms the completion of an 'ascending triangle' pattern, opening the door to a technical target at $84,000 first, then $92,000 later.
Famous cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe expects Bitcoin to rise to the range of $85,000 - $88,000 in the next two to four weeks, supported by a decline in the VIX volatility index and increased institutional allocations to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. However, there are also warning voices: the Glassnode team in their weekly report pointed out that Bitcoin may face selling pressure at the $78,100 level, which represents the 'real market average,' and that a sustainable break above it will confirm a structural shift towards a bull market.
Ethereum: A golden cross brings hope
As for Ethereum, the story here is more exciting. Turning the $2,385 level from solid resistance to new support is what analyst Ali Martinez bases his bullish expectations on. After weeks of bouncing at this level, Ethereum finally managed to break through, removing a large layer of selling pressure that had been weighing on the price. Martinez sees the path now clear to $2,900, supported by chain data showing significant absorption of Ethereum's 'upper supply.'
What’s more exciting is the appearance of a 'golden cross' on Ethereum’s weekly MACD, a technical signal that has previously coincided with significant price lows in November 2024 and May 2025. If we add to this the sustained inflows into Ethereum exchange-traded funds over six consecutive days, the bullish picture becomes clearer.
Ripple: A different story this time
Ripple was undoubtedly the star of the week. A 10% weekly gain may not seem extraordinary in the world of cryptocurrencies, but context is what makes the difference. For the first time since January, Ripple outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of weekly gains, and the reason was not merely a 'contagion' from the wider market rise, but specific catalysts related to Ripple itself.
New partnerships with Rakuten and Kyobo Life were announced on the same day, coinciding with increasing expectations regarding the passage of the 'CLARITY Act' in the Senate Banking Committee. Traders on the Kalshi prediction platform are now betting on Ripple reaching $1.60 this month, with signals supporting this bet accumulating rapidly.
Challenges on the horizon
However, the market is not entirely rosy. There are indicators that call for caution. Funding rates on perpetual Bitcoin futures have remained negative for 46 consecutive days from a 30-day average, suggesting that short sellers are pressing hard, betting on Bitcoin's failure to break through the consolidation range. This situation creates a fertile environment for 'short selling pressure,' but at the same time means that any additional rise could surprise these speculators and prompt them to cover their positions, adding fuel to the rise.
Also, large premiums are currently being paid for put options providing downside protection at $60,000 and $50,000 levels, indicating that major investors are still hedging against the possibility of a sharp reversal.
Summary: The week of crossroads
We stand at a real crossroads this week. On one hand, there’s a compelling story about the return of institutions, improved geopolitical climate, and bullish technical signals. On the other hand, there’s a cautious derivatives market, and chain data shows that new capital is still relatively limited, with a clear dominance of a 'wait-and-see' stance as noted by Glassnode experts.
Analyst Jasper de Meyer from Wintermute summarized the dilemma by saying: 'The market needs clarity on Hormuz and sustainable institutional buying to convincingly break this range. A sustainable ceasefire screams bullishness, but every week that the strait remains turbulent could yield worse results exponentially.
Ultimately, this week will likely be remembered as the week the market began to shift from a state of 'extreme fear' to a more balanced state. But the journey is still in its early stages, and the road to $90,000 for Bitcoin or $2,900 for Ethereum is filled with bumps. Institutions have started to move, but the more important question is: Will they continue to move when geopolitical headlines settle?
As always in the world of cryptocurrencies, the next few days may hold the answer.