On April 19, 2026, the past 48 hours have been nothing short of a Hollywood blockbuster for participants in the cryptocurrency market, filled with dramatic twists and turns.
The stage of the story is the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East—a vital artery for global energy. In just two days, news about the strait being 'open' and 'closed' acted like an invisible hand, suddenly pushing the price of Bitcoin from the platform of $73,000 to the heights of $78,000, and then mercilessly crashing it down to the abyss of $74,000.
On April 17, a major announcement spread globally through major financial news: Iran suddenly declared a 'complete opening' of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping. It is important to note that the smooth flow of the Strait of Hormuz directly relates to about 20% of the world's oil supply and is one of the most important barometers of market risk sentiment.
Immediately afterwards, Trump further fueled the fire, boldly declaring on social media that negotiations with Iran had made 'great progress', a 'three-page memorandum of understanding' was nearing completion, and hinted that a final agreement could be reached 'within one to two days'.
Risk appetite has rapidly rebounded, safe-haven assets have been sold off, and as a risk asset barometer, Bitcoin's price started near $73,000, surging through several resistance levels, ultimately reaching an astonishing $78,000 on the same day, setting a new high in recent months.
According to data from the CoinGlass platform, during this period, approximately 168,000 traders were liquidated, with total losses reaching up to $762 million. The shorts were almost completely slaughtered, and the market was filled with a frenzy of 'the bull market is back'.
Just as the bulls celebrate victory, envisioning the moment Bitcoin rushes toward the $80,000 mark, late on April 18, the situation takes a dramatic 180-degree turn.
The Iranian Navy issued a strongly worded statement through its official channels. The statement said that due to the US side's failure to fulfill its commitments in the ceasefire agreement, especially its failure to lift the maritime blockade against Iran, Iran has decided to once again impose a complete blockade on the Strait of Hormuz until the US fulfills its obligations.
The moment the news broke, the market reacted faster than lightning. On the Bitcoin price candlestick chart, a huge red candle began to flow backward, and the $75,000 level, previously seen as a key psychological support, offered almost no resistance, with the price dropping to a low of $74,950, falling more than $3,000 from the peak.
According to statistics from the data platform, within 24 hours after the news was announced, more than 200,000 people were liquidated, with a total amount reaching $317 million. Among them, the amount liquidated in long positions was about $250 million, accounting for nearly an astonishing 80%.
The same strait, the same news, just changed direction, completing an indiscriminate slaughter of both bulls and bears in the market.
Three exclusive perspectives behind this storm
1. The dual harvesting of 'opening and then closing':
When Iran announced 'opening', the shorts were still hesitating about the authenticity of the news, and the short squeeze had already begun; when the Revolutionary Guard announced 'closing', the bulls were still digesting the information, and a waterfall decline had already occurred.
2. The structural pricing of 'ceasefire ≠ peace':
Looking deeper, the pricing model of the market regarding US-Iran news is undergoing a fundamental shift. In the past, market reactions were binary: 'good news' led to rises, while 'bad news' resulted in falls. But now, the formula for market pricing is no longer simply 'good/bad', but: credibility of the news × sustainability of the policy × current market leverage structure.
This uncertainty is precisely the root of the market's violent fluctuations.
3. The uncertainty premium of US-Iran negotiations:
As of today (April 19), the situation remains murky. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that negotiations have made 'initial progress', but there is still a distance to the final agreement. Meanwhile, Israel's military actions in Lebanon have added new variables to an already fragile ceasefire agreement.
CNN's Fear & Greed Index shows that the current market sentiment value is only 27, in a state of 'fear'. This indicates that investors are still highly tense, ready to respond to the next shock at any moment.
It can be anticipated that before the time and place of the next round of negotiations between the US and Iran are finalized, any hint of movement regarding negotiations will lead to severe fluctuations in the market within the range of $74,000 to $78,000 shaped by this event.
For those of us caught in the midst of it, the experience of these 48 hours may offer the best lesson: in the face of geopolitical giants, any technical analysis appears powerless. When the players at the table are unpredictable state actors, the best strategy may not be to bet, but to step back and observe.
