USDT.D Update: the market is preparing for movement — key decisions will be made in negotiations
The first touch of the 7–7.2% zone has already reacted, but a return to the range did not happen — this increases the likelihood of further market growth. Currently, the main scenario is a decrease in dominance to 6.5–6.8% against the backdrop of BTC rising to $80k, however, the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations will be the decisive trigger.
Initially, a classic ABC structure was expected with a return to the range, but the market has taken a different path. The lack of a pullback is a signal of strength, meaning the current dynamics maintain bullish potential.
It's now reasonable to expect the formation of an ABCDE structure with a gradual decline in USDT.D and a potential descending wedge. This pattern often ends with a sharp upward impulse — the only question is timing and the catalyst.
📊 The key factor right now is geopolitics. The market is literally tied to expectations of negotiations between the US and Iran.
Scenarios:
➡️ Positive outcome:
BTC is holding at $73–74k → the rally continues → moving towards the short zone is a logical continuation.
➡️ Negative outcome:
Breaking below $74k → acceleration of the decline → potential hunt for liquidity in the $69–70k zone.
The market is at a point where technicals take a backseat — from here on, everything will be decided by a news trigger.
