I entered PIXEL in February of this year, when the price was around 0.0045, which was the historical lowest point. My judgment at that time was very simple: it dropped 99%, there are still people playing, the project hasn't died, let's bet on a recovery. Looking back now, this logic was half right and half wrong.
The correct part is that the price did indeed rise back from the bottom, reaching a maximum of 0.018, and I took a segment. The incorrect part is that I completely failed to consider one thing at the time: Axie Infinity also went through the same logic back in the day. Axie dropped from 160 to 3, and many people thought at 5, "it dropped 97% and still has players, it won't die," and then they entered the market, only for it to continue dropping, and now AXS is still hovering around $3, with no movement for two years.
I have been thinking repeatedly about what exactly is different between Pixels and Axie, because the answer to this question determines whether I should continue to hold.
Axie's problem at that time was that the economic model had a unidirectional outflow—tokens were issued to players, but there were not enough deep consumption scenarios within the game to absorb the tokens back, resulting in infinite inflation and then a collapse. What Pixels is doing now, at least in direction, is the opposite: vPIXEL locks a part of the rewards in-game for consumption, VIP tiers link consumption with rights, and the Stacked RORS metric directly monitors the consumption to issuance ratio. These mechanisms were not present in Axie back then.
But I thought of another thing. During its peak, Axie had 1.5 million daily active users, and Pixels has also reached 1.5 million. At that time, Axie also had a very active guild system and community, and there were people seriously studying its economic mechanisms, but in the end, it still collapsed. The collapse of the game economy is not because no one studies the mechanism, but because when the speed of new players cannot keep up with the speed of token issuance, the system begins to decline, and it is very difficult to stop.
I can't find the latest real-time data on Pixels' current daily active users, which is the number I want to know the most. If daily active users are increasing, the consumption side has a chance to outpace the issuance side; if daily active users are decreasing, no matter how good the mechanism design is, it is just on paper. I currently hold a portion of my position, but I am not sure whether I am betting on the mechanism or on daily active users; the winning rates of these two things are different.