Let me briefly explain the current situation between the U.S. and Iran and my outlook for the future!

Now in the entire cryptocurrency circle, the short-term fluctuations really depend on whether this negotiation in the Middle East can get underway. Will they negotiate or not? Let me clarify that in a few minutes. You see the current situation, the Americans are already in Pakistan, and Vice President Vance will soon fly over, just waiting for the Iranians to come to the table. However, the Iranians have not budged yet and have not said they will attend. So will there be negotiations next? I'll give you the conclusion directly.

It is highly likely that Iran will go, but not to sign an agreement; it is very possible that they will just go through the motions to buy time. Why?

First, Iran cannot completely refuse to ceasefire, it is about to expire. If they directly refuse, the whole world will say that Iran is undermining peace. The American vice president is waiting for you, and you don't go. The U.S. has a reason to open fire and will occupy the moral high ground in public opinion. Therefore, Iran must give some face and send someone, they cannot shut the door completely.

Second, whether Iran will actually negotiate, we need to observe. Iran's bottom line is very clear: if the U.S. does not lift the maritime blockade and does not cancel sanctions, substantial content will not be discussed. However, the U.S. attitude is also tough; if negotiations do not succeed, the blockade will not be eased. The conditions on both sides are currently completely opposed and very hard to reconcile. Last time they talked for over twenty hours, didn't that end up being for nothing? Now, Iran is in a game of chess. On one side, the foreign minister wants to talk, while on the other side, the Revolutionary Guard is very tough. In the end, it is highly likely that Iran will approve a discussion, but it depends on the level of the delegation they send. If it is only at the level of the foreign minister, then that means the past interactions have been too few. So remember, the probability of Iran going is over 60%, while the probability of not going is less than 40%.

Third, the scenario I find most likely is that Iran sends a delegation to Islamabad to sit down and chat for a few minutes, only discussing the extension of the ceasefire, not the core conditions. The U.S. will also symbolically relax a bit, and the blockade on both sides will drag on for a few more days. For the cryptocurrency circle, as long as discussions happen, even if just for formality, there will be a slight increase in the short term. If Iran directly refuses to negotiate and the talks collapse, then the flames of war will reignite, and the cryptocurrency circle will immediately decline.

In summary, the negotiations are likely to start next, which is definitely a phased benefit for the circle. The market will rebound in the short term, but whether there will be significant progress depends on whether the Iranians show up at the venue in Pakistan and how high the level of the delegation they send is!

Once you analyze this point thoroughly, the next steps will be very clear. The low point on Monday this week was 735, and the high point last Friday was 783. In the short term, we will look for a rebound to fill the gap of 775-780 following the news signals. If the momentum is a bit stronger, it may reach around 815. In the short term, we just need to operate along the trend!

Alright, that's all. If you can't gauge the international situation, trust Ultraman! Professional finance for 10 years! Interpreting global situations!#加密市场反弹 #Arbitrum冻结黑客ETH #美伊冲突接下来会如何发展？