Post
--Bearish
In the past few days, the situation can be summed up as a pure war of words. The Americans are dragging their feet on discussions, while the Iranians are making increasingly aggressive statements, each trying to outdo the other. The result is that neither side is willing to take real action, nor do they want to back down first.
Bingtang sees it clearly - the Vice President's schedule has been indefinitely postponed, which essentially means the talks have broken down; they can't even be bothered to put on a show anymore. The phrase 'ready to play new cards' sounds impressive but is essentially just a continuation of threats. If they were really going to take action, they would have done so long ago, no need to shout slogans every day. Chuanzi's extension of the ceasefire is also an old trick, afraid to strike but not wanting the market to collapse directly, they can only drag out the time to stabilize emotions.
If you take this as a good thing, then you are too naive. All of this is essentially about controlling the pace and expectations, and is not really about solving problems. Whoever has the sharper rhetoric will be able to gain more initiative. Therefore, the market is now completely driven by news; today a rumor pushes it up, tomorrow a harsh statement brings it down, creating a spectacle while the essence is just emotions running wild.
On the macro side, they have actually made it clear long ago that not lowering interest rates is essentially a done deal, and those still fantasizing about liquidity saving them are just deceiving themselves. There are also people saying that changing the person in charge would allow for a rate cut, but this logic is simply nonsense; interest rates are determined by data, not by who sits in that position.
Returning to the market, the drop last night was actually very critical. The low of $BTC hit 74.7K, dropping two thousand points from the high, which is not insignificant. But the key is that this position is precisely stuck at the lower edge of the ascending channel, hard pressed back down, which indicates that the bulls are not dead yet, and are even a bit resilient.
But the pit is slowly being dug here. The head-and-shoulders top structure is still in place; the right shoulder is indeed rising, but that doesn’t mean the structure is invalid. On the contrary, it looks more like an inducement to get investors on board. Especially with this kind of rapid pullback, it’s most likely to have a needle drop directly down, burying all those who chased the highs. I tend to think this wave of acceleration is not stable, the faster it rises, the quicker it will die.
If you look at the essence, this wave of increase is not due to fundamental improvement, but is forcibly pulled up by news. The negotiations have not resolved anything, and further disputes will continue; this uncertainty will repeatedly arise, with the potential for another round of drops at any time.
#美伊冲突接下来会如何发展？
Bingtang sees it clearly - the Vice President's schedule has been indefinitely postponed, which essentially means the talks have broken down; they can't even be bothered to put on a show anymore. The phrase 'ready to play new cards' sounds impressive but is essentially just a continuation of threats. If they were really going to take action, they would have done so long ago, no need to shout slogans every day. Chuanzi's extension of the ceasefire is also an old trick, afraid to strike but not wanting the market to collapse directly, they can only drag out the time to stabilize emotions.
If you take this as a good thing, then you are too naive. All of this is essentially about controlling the pace and expectations, and is not really about solving problems. Whoever has the sharper rhetoric will be able to gain more initiative. Therefore, the market is now completely driven by news; today a rumor pushes it up, tomorrow a harsh statement brings it down, creating a spectacle while the essence is just emotions running wild.
On the macro side, they have actually made it clear long ago that not lowering interest rates is essentially a done deal, and those still fantasizing about liquidity saving them are just deceiving themselves. There are also people saying that changing the person in charge would allow for a rate cut, but this logic is simply nonsense; interest rates are determined by data, not by who sits in that position.
Returning to the market, the drop last night was actually very critical. The low of $BTC hit 74.7K, dropping two thousand points from the high, which is not insignificant. But the key is that this position is precisely stuck at the lower edge of the ascending channel, hard pressed back down, which indicates that the bulls are not dead yet, and are even a bit resilient.
But the pit is slowly being dug here. The head-and-shoulders top structure is still in place; the right shoulder is indeed rising, but that doesn’t mean the structure is invalid. On the contrary, it looks more like an inducement to get investors on board. Especially with this kind of rapid pullback, it’s most likely to have a needle drop directly down, burying all those who chased the highs. I tend to think this wave of acceleration is not stable, the faster it rises, the quicker it will die.
If you look at the essence, this wave of increase is not due to fundamental improvement, but is forcibly pulled up by news. The negotiations have not resolved anything, and further disputes will continue; this uncertainty will repeatedly arise, with the potential for another round of drops at any time.
#美伊冲突接下来会如何发展？