In April 2026, SpaceX secretly filed for an IPO with the SEC, aiming to kick off a roadshow around June, planning to raise approximately $75 billion, with a valuation potentially reaching $1.75 trillion. This could become one of the largest IPOs in history. At the same time, AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic are nearing their own IPO windows, creating a rare super IPO cycle. Many investors are seeing this as a chance and are actively looking for Pre-IPO entry points. Historical data shows that among retail investors participating in these investments, about 80% end up seeing their actual returns turn negative within six months post-IPO. The reasons include fee erosion, liquidity constraints, and poor timing on exits.
SpaceX's IPO places a special emphasis on retail investors, with multiple media reports indicating plans to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail, far exceeding the traditional IPO norm of 5% to 10%. Among traditional underwriters, Morgan Stanley's E*Trade platform is expected to lead the allocation for small and medium retail investors, while Bank of America focuses on domestic high-net-worth and family offices, and Citigroup covers international retail channels. This arrangement gives more ordinary people a chance to participate at the issue price stage, but popular IPOs often see oversubscription, which may compress the actual amounts received based on demand.
This article conducts a full-chain yield simulation based on the return data of similar Pre-IPO products over the past five years, combined with SpaceX's current valuation model. It focuses on how much retail investors can earn, where the potential loss points are, and the exit paths post-listing. All analyses are based on publicly available historical cases and reasonable assumptions, for reference only.
The real yield truth of Pre-IPO investment
In recent years, Pre-IPO products from high-growth companies like Neuralink, Stripe, and Databricks have provided rich samples. Take Neuralink as an example: secondary market prices rose from a low level in early 2025 to a significant increase in Q1 2026, with some platform products achieving double-digit annualized returns after fees. However, after listing or unlocking, the average price often falls back within 90 days, significantly reducing actual returns. Databricks is similar, with a 65% ARR growth in 2025 and positive free cash flow, with secondary market valuations rising from around $100 billion to about $134 billion. Pre-IPO holders exiting near the peak, after accounting for slippage and management fees, see net returns far below the apparent increase.
SpaceX's situation has its unique characteristics. Starlink has become the core growth engine, with estimated revenues in 2025 ranging from $10 billion to $11.4 billion, accounting for 50% to 80% of the company's total revenue, and EBITDA margins steadily increasing. The company's overall revenue in 2025 is around $15 billion to $18.5 billion, with EBITDA of about $8 billion. Recent trading prices in the secondary market correspond to valuations of approximately $800 billion to $1.54 trillion (latest prices on platforms like Forge are around $610-$662 per share, leading to an overall valuation of about $1.46 trillion). The IPO target valuation is $1.75 trillion, suggesting there may be some discount or premium from the current secondary market price to the first-day listing price. A simple simulation formula is: actual yield equals the exit price post-listing minus the subscription price, multiplied by the cost deduction coefficient, minus the opportunity cost during the lock-up period.
Historical stats show that real equity SPV products have a higher win rate than pure synthetic notes or perpetual contract products. The former corresponds to actual shares and can be converted to public stock post-IPO; the latter relies more on platform hedging, making it susceptible to capital rate accumulation during volatility. In the 2024 to 2025 sample, the real SPV group has a positive return probability of about 55% in the first year post-listing, while synthetic ones hover around 35%. SpaceX is expected to see Starlink subscription users continue expanding post-IPO, coupled with the operational success of Starship technology, providing strong long-term valuation support. However, in the short term, regulatory scrutiny, rumors of Musk's sell-off, or market sentiment could trigger a pullback.
Implicit costs and risk matrix
Pre-IPO products come with multiple layers of fees. The explicit parts include subscription fees and redemption fees, while implicit parts cover capital rates, slippage, SPV management fees, and tax implications. The risks faced by different capital scales vary. Small funds below $10,000 are suitable for on-chain products with good liquidity, medium funds from $10,000 to $250,000 can mix traditional secondary markets, and large funds tend to prefer direct equity paths to reduce fee rates.
The risk matrix can be segmented as follows: horizontally by capital volume and vertically by product type. In the real SPV box, the largest drawdown cases often stem from IPO delays causing capital occupation; in the synthetic mirror box, losses are magnified when platform hedging fails; DeFi contract types amplify leverage effects, with capital rates quickly eroding returns in volatile markets. SpaceX-specific risks include the regulatory progress of Starlink's spectrum, overall aerospace industry policy changes, and potential stock price fluctuations during lock-up periods. Investors should calculate the total cost of holding in advance and pressure-test net returns under different scenarios.
Authoritative exchanges' quotas for SpaceX's IPO, corresponding returns, and retail participation opportunities
SpaceX's retail allocation ratio for the IPO is as high as 30%, far exceeding the norm, which directly enhances retail participation. Traditional channels, such as Morgan Stanley's ETrade platform and Bank of America, provide opportunities for small and medium retail investors to obtain shares at the issue price, but the specific amount depends on the broker's allocation rules and demand intensity; popular IPOs often see oversubscription, compressing actual allocation ratios. ETrade is expected to dominate the allocation for small and medium retail portions, while platforms like Robinhood and SoFi are also vying for a share, with the final allocation depending on the overall subscription situation.
Bitget IPO Prime platform
Bitget's IPO Prime platform collaborates with Republic to issue preSPAX synthetic mirror notes. The fixed subscription price is $650 per share, with a total supply of 94,000 shares. The minimum investment starts at 100 USDT, with limits dynamically allocated based on VIP levels, with VIP0 capped at $1,000 and VIP7 at $300,000. The total committed pool has exceeded $177 million. This product is issued by SEC/FINRA licensed institutions and has previously serviced projects like Neuralink, boasting a high compliance coefficient. Subscriptions can be issued and enter spot trading on the same day after the end of the subscription. Suitable for short-term users pursuing discount arbitrage. If a significant increase occurs on the first day of listing, potential profit space after deducting buy-sell spreads and capital fees is considerable.
Gate platform
Gate platform has launched SPCX synthetic mirror subscriptions. The current subscription price is $590 per share (one of the lowest on the net), with a total supply of about 33,900 shares. The minimum investment starts at 100 USDT, with individual limits set according to VIP levels. Subscription enthusiasm is high, with committed amounts exceeding $353 million within 24 hours. The product is 100% unlocked for distribution and waives certain implicit fees and custody fees. Its advantages lie in strong price competitiveness, suitable for small position retail investors seeking subscription discounts, with liquidity support for quick entry and exit. Essentially a platform hedging mirror, long-term holding requires attention to the settlement mechanism.
Binance Wallet PreStocks section
Binance Wallet's PreStocks section adopts the SPV mapping model, indirectly holding the underlying real equity. SpaceX's current trading price is around $703-715 per share, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $800,000 to $2 million and a large accumulated trading volume. The minimum purchase starts at 0.01 shares, with main costs being the buy-sell price spread, with no additional management or channel fees. It leverages Binance's large user base to provide convenient access. Suitable for ordinary users to participate with small amounts, with advantages in liquidity and a clean fee structure, allowing direct operations in the wallet's Markets section.
PreStocks platform
The PreStocks platform itself also maps SPV to real equity on a 1:1 basis. SpaceX's price is currently around $700, with a minimum threshold of 0.01 shares and nearly no capital restrictions. Fees mainly come from market maker spreads. Cumulative trading volume has exceeded hundreds of millions of dollars, suitable for small investors testing the waters with amounts from a few hundred to several thousand dollars, with flexible on-chain trading, but large amounts must be mindful of KYC requirements.
Jarsy platform
Jarsy platform adopts a Delaware LLC structure and publicly issues equity certificates, with a clear compliance framework. SpaceX's current price is high (over $800), with a minimum investment starting at 10 JUSD. It charges platform fees plus carried interest (example: platform fee around 5-6% plus 5% carried interest). The underlying covers multiple AI and aerospace projects. The advantage lies in the ability to verify ownership documents on-chain, suitable for long-term allocation users holding as a safe asset. Although liquidity is relatively thin, USD is proportionately returned during liquidation, providing high long-term peace of mind.
Hyperliquid Ventuals HIP-3 contract
Hyperliquid deploys HIP-3 perpetual contracts via Ventuals, belonging to a pure DeFi derivatives model. SpaceX contracts currently range around $1,700-1,720, supporting leveraged trading, with 24-hour transaction and position volumes in the millions of dollars. Taker rates are relatively low, but the real cost of holding comes from capital rates (which may be high annually). There are no minimum threshold restrictions, making it suitable for professional hedgers to amplify short-term gains. Its advantages lie in being permissionless and on-chain price discovery, but the risk of liquidation is high under high leverage, not recommended for retail investors to hold long in a naked long position.
Overall, these authoritative CEX Pre-IPO products allow retail investors to participate without high net worth thresholds, with flexible amounts ranging from tens of dollars to several thousand, corresponding potential returns depending on listing performance. Assuming SpaceX experiences short-term growth after listing, some platform products' historical simulations show considerable annualized returns, but actual take-home amounts must deduct all costs. Retail opportunities have significantly increased, especially in on-chain products, where stablecoins can be used for subscriptions at any time without complex qualification reviews. However, most products are economic mirrors rather than real equities, and long-term holding requires assessing platform transparency and exit mechanisms.
Full chain exit simulation post-listing
Assuming SpaceX lists in June, retail investors can plan their paths based on personal situations. Small-cap investors can choose on-chain products, first subscribing and then managing risks with hedging tools before listing, selling in batches post-listing to lock in some profits. Medium-cap investors are suited to combine traditional Hiive or Forge platforms with Web3 products for proportionate allocation, balancing liquidity with real shareholding. Large-cap or institutional paths should focus on equity certificate transfers and tax optimization, aiming for long-term holdings of Starlink's growth dividends.
Three scenario simulations are as follows:
Scenario one: a 30% increase on the first day of listing. Real equity products yield the highest net return after costs; synthetic products rely on platform settlement speed and may experience slight discounts.
Scenario two: a 15% pullback post-listing accompanied by a 180-day lock-up period. At this point, hedging tools can play a role, with phased reductions combined with derivatives to lower maximum drawdown.
Scenario three: IPO delayed by 6 months. Capital occupation cost becomes the primary issue, requiring advance liquidity reserves to avoid being forced to exit at unfavorable prices.
Practical rules include setting profit-taking and stop-loss thresholds, choosing reasonable exit windows, and preparing a tax filing checklist. Toolkits can help track accumulated costs and valuation changes.
Future trends and allocation suggestions
The Web3 Pre-IPO space is evolving towards RWA, with future SPVs potentially achieving more transparent on-chain equity trading. The regulatory environment is also gradually clarifying; the stance of the SEC in the US and the comparative frameworks in Europe and Singapore are worth noting. Single-heavy exposure to SpaceX carries high risks; it is suggested to construct a portfolio based on personal risk preferences, such as allocating 40% to 60% in SpaceX, paired with one or two other IPO targets from the same period, with the remaining portion allocated to stable assets.
Pre-IPO investment is essentially a tool to capture value in high-growth phases. The key to success lies in conducting yield pressure tests, controlling costs, and planning clear exit routes. The market is always uncertain; rational participation allows for better opportunity capture.
The above content is based on publicly available data and historical patterns and does not constitute investment advice. Investing carries risks; consult a professional advisor and consider your own situation before making decisions.