Core Issues
Pixels passed through the large unlock on April 19 smoothly, with the price decline controlled at -12.21%. However, there are still 91.18 million tokens (accounting for 11.83% of circulation) set to unlock on May 19, and the total amount unlocked this month will account for nearly 19% of the circulation.
This article, based on on-chain data as of April 23, answers: Why didn't the April unlock cause a crash? Is the market ready for the second major test on May 19?
I have been continuously tracking Pixels' on-chain data for over 3 months; here are the latest records as of April 23.
1. On-chain Data: From 120K pulsating growth to 454K steady state
📈 User Data: Daily active users stable at 454K
As of April 23, Pixels ranks first in the Ronin ecosystem with 454K daily active users; the second-ranked Apeiron has 113K, and the third Axie Infinity has 55K. The daily independent active wallets (dUAW) on the Ronin network exceeded 790K in April, up 45% compared to March.
Interpretation: Compared to March's short-term peak of 120K, Pixels' current 454K daily active data is not a 'pulsating carnival' in hype, but rather a true retention of real users in the stable operation of the Ronin ecosystem. The daily active data of the three core games is clearly tiered—Pixels leads with a significant advantage, reflecting its leading position in the ecosystem.
📊 Price and Market Cap: Post-unlocking decline controlled at -12.21%
As of April 23, the PIXEL price is approximately in the range of $0.0073–$0.0087, with a circulating market cap of about $5.6–$6.4 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $630–$1.9 million. After the advisor category unlocking of approximately 54.38 million to 91.18 million PIXEL on April 19, the price decline was -12.21%.
Interpretation: In the field of token economics, a mere 12.21% price decline after large-scale unlocks indicates that market support exceeded expectations. Behind this is the ongoing attraction of Chapter 3 Bountyfall's social competition gameplay for player participation, as well as the locking effect brought by the staking system, which partially hedged the sell pressure from the unlocks.
🌐 Ronin Ecosystem: Pixels as the core engine
The Ronin network's dUAW exceeded 790K in April, increasing by 45% month-on-month. Pixels, with 454K daily active users, accounts for over 57% of the total ecosystem user base, making it the core user engine of the Ronin ecosystem.
Summary: 454K daily active users prove that Pixels has evolved from a 'pulsating hype' to a 'steady leader'. After the April unlocking, the token price only pulled back 12.21%, indicating that the market has partially digested the expectations for monthly unlocks. However, the second round on May 19, with a larger scale of 91.18 million tokens, will still face tests of support.
2. Token Economics: April passed smoothly, May remains a tough battle
📊 Distribution Structure (Core Data)
Maximum supply of 5 billion tokens, current circulating supply is approximately 771 million tokens, with a circulation ratio of only 15.42%.
Ranked from highest to lowest:
Ecosystem Rewards: 34%
Treasury: 17%
Private Investors: 14%
Team: 12.5%
Advisors: 9.5%
Binance Launchpool: 7%
Alpha Rewards: 5%
Liquidity: 1%
The combined total of the team and advisors is 22%, with the unlocking period extending to 2029.
🔓 Recent Unlocks: Already occurred and upcoming
April 19: The advisor category has unlocked approximately 54.38 million to 91.18 million PIXEL (approximately $717K–$22.47 million), accounting for 7.05%–11.83% of the circulation at that time. The price decline was controlled at -12.21% post-unlock.
May 19 (18 days countdown): Approximately 91.18 million PIXEL will unlock, accounting for 11.83% of the current circulation, valued at around $4.7 million at current prices. The unlocking will also be for the advisor category, at 18:00 Beijing time on that day.
Monthly Continuous Unlocks: Approximately 28 million PIXEL will unlock each month, and this pace will continue for the next 3–12 months.
Market Observation: After the April unlock, the price only dropped 12.21%, which is related to the PIXEL tokens starting to transfer to market-making addresses—previously, about 50 million tokens (1% of the total) were transferred to suspected market-making new addresses. This helped stabilize liquidity to some extent. However, the total unlocks in April and May account for nearly 19% of the circulation, and continuous supply pressure should not be underestimated.
Summary: The April unlock passed smoothly, and market expectations have been partially digested. However, May 19 is a second major test; if support shows a qualitative change, there remains the risk of a price drop.
3. New Ecological Trends: Transitioning from single-game to cross-game ecosystems
🎮 Chapter 3 Bountyfall: Social competition continues to operate
Chapter 3 Bountyfall has fully launched, introducing a brand new Union social competition system. Players can join one of three Union factions: Wildgroves, Seedwrights, or Reapers, participating in team competitions and collaborations, lowering the barriers for traditional guilds. This update has become the core driver of maintaining 454K daily active users.
🏦 $PIXEL Staking: Token locking effects evident
Through the staking panel (staking.pixels.xyz), users can stake $PIXEL into various game pools, including Main World, Pixel Dungeons, Forgotten Runiverse, etc. The more tokens staked, the larger the rewards pool obtained by the corresponding game. This provides a practical application scenario for the token and, to some extent, hedges against the sell pressure from unlocks.
🤖 Stacked: $25 million revenue validating AI reward model
Stacked—The AI-driven rewards system launched by the Pixels team—has helped Pixels achieve over $25 million in revenue and processed over a hundred million reward distributions. The system can analyze player behavior in real-time, accurately distributing rewards to real active players instead of bots or exploiters. Stacked plans to open up to more external game studios, marking the upgrade of $PIXEL from a single-game token to a cross-game reward and loyalty currency.
Summary: Pixels has evolved from a single farming game to a cross-game reward infrastructure. Chapter 3's social competition mechanism has maintained user activity, the staking system provides utility for token locking, and Stacked has validated the commercial viability of AI-driven reward models.
4. Competitor Comparison: Pixels vs. Notcoin (as of April 23)
Market Cap Comparison: Pixels' current circulating market cap is approximately $5.6–$6.4 million; Notcoin's market cap is around $35–$37 million, making Pixels only about 1/6 of the latter.
Price Comparison: Pixels is around $0.0073–$0.0087, rebounding more than 80% from the late February low; Notcoin is about $0.00037, rebounding about 8% from the late February low.
Circulation Ratio: Pixels only at 15.42%, while Notcoin has reached ~97% (99.43B/102.46B). In terms of Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), Pixels is approximately $41 million, while Notcoin is about $36 million—Pixels' FDV has surpassed Notcoin.
Core Differences: Notcoin has broader exchange coverage and higher liquidity; Pixels is continually strengthening token utility through ecological expansion (Chapter 3 ongoing, staking system, Stacked cross-game expansion), and has proven its user base with 454K daily active users.
Conclusion: From an FDV perspective, Pixels' valuation has surpassed Notcoin. Pixels' advantage lies in real user growth and a clear path for ecological expansion; Notcoin's strength is its broader liquidity coverage. Currently, both have formed benchmarks at the valuation level, but Pixels' circulating supply is significantly smaller, making it more volatile.
5. Risks and Observation Checklist (Updated April 23)
⚠️ Three Major Risks
Technical Risks: Contract audit status not fully disclosed. Pixels Farm Land NFTs are still trading on the Ethereum network rather than Ronin, meaning Ronin cannot earn transaction fee revenue from this.
Economic Model Risks: Circulation only at 15.42%, with 28 million tokens continuously unlocking each month + the large-scale unlock of 91.18 million tokens on May 19 approaching, the total amount unlocked this month will account for nearly 19% of the circulation.
Competition Risks: Apeiron (with 113K daily active users) and Axie Infinity (with 55K daily active users) are forming direct competition within the Ronin ecosystem, alongside external competitors like Notcoin in the TON ecosystem.
🔍 Three Key Turning Point Observations Indicators (Updated 4.23)
7 days post the May 19 unlock: If the price declines exceed 15%, it indicates a qualitative change in market support.
30 days post Ronin zkEVM launch: Will Pixels attract incremental users as the first application?
Number of external games integrated with Stacked: If more than 5 external games are integrated before the end of 2026, the cross-game utility of $PIXEL will be further validated.
✅ Conclusion
Highlights: Pixels maintains the top position in the Ronin ecosystem with 454K daily active users, more than 4 times the second-place Apeiron. The Chapter 3 Bountyfall social competition system continues to operate, the staking mechanism provides a token locking effect, and the Stacked system verifies the commercial viability of the AI-driven reward model (with $25 million revenue). After the large unlock on April 19, the price only retreated by 12.21%, showing that market support exceeded expectations.
Hidden Risks: Circulation only at 15.42%, with the total amount unlocked this month accounting for nearly 19% of circulation—5438 million to 9118 million tokens have already unlocked on April 19, with another 9118 million coming on May 19. The continuous supply pressure of 28 million tokens each month will remain long-term. From an FDV perspective, Pixels (around $41 million) has exceeded Notcoin (around $36 million), making its valuation no longer cheap.
Next Steps to Watch: The market reaction to the second round of unlocking on May 19; whether Pixels can further attract incremental users post-Ronin zkEVM launch; progress with Stacked external game integration.
💬 After the April 19 unlock, PIXEL's decline was controlled within 12%—do you think this performance is exceeding expectations or falling short? Will you hedge in advance for the second round of unlock on May 19 or wait to buy the dip? Let's chat in the comments.
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Original Statement: This article is an independent on-chain data analysis, all data is based on publicly disclosed information from Dune Analytics, Tokenomist, Ronin's official X platform, and CoinGecko, with sources cited in the text. Update date: April 23, 2026.
