$BTC Continuing from yesterday's discussion, I made it clear yesterday—negotiation is essentially a short-term emotional catalyst. This so-called bullish rebound, I never took it seriously from the start.
Let’s get straight to the point: Chuanzi is giving mixed signals today, and how often do we see this kind of plot? If you treat this news as a trend indicator, the market will just harvest the wallets of those who don’t think critically.
Prices are indeed rising, but if you take a close look at the order book, turnover is increasing, yet trading volume isn’t keeping pace. What does that mean? Classic case of pushing up while offloading.
Who’s selling? It’s definitely not retail traders; they only chase the highs. The real sellers are the funds that positioned themselves at lower levels, slowly cashing out. If you want to believe this is a healthy rally, then let time teach you—markets have no mercy.
Looking at institutional players, stop fixating on the few that are buying, like BlackRock; outliers don't set trends. Most funds are starting to think this wave isn’t worth it and are beginning to retreat.
The current market state is quite real—bulls are hesitant to go all-in, and bears are too scared to hammer down; they’re just watching each other to see who flinches first. What does this kind of situation usually lead to? Consolidation, back-and-forth pulls, grinding down your sentiment.
If you’re calling this the start of a bull market, that’s basically self-hypnosis. The monthly chart is still pushing down; in this structure, talking about bulls is too early. What’s a real bull? It’s not just a couple of green candles; it’s about breaking through and holding up against pullbacks for 8 to 10 weeks without collapsing—that's how you establish a trend. Right now, we haven’t even broken the first level of resistance, and people are already calling for reversals—talk about impatience.
The daily chart tells it more directly: the rebound hits resistance and starts showing selling pressure. You can explain this with a head and shoulders pattern, and that’s fine, but the essence is simpler—it’s just not moving up anymore. Funds are unwilling to push it higher; that's the reality.
So don’t let the surface rhythm lead you astray; this kind of market loves to do one thing—make you buy in hope, then force you to cut losses in doubt. This isn’t the time for storytelling; it’s about who can stay more clear-headed right now.
#加密市场反弹