$BTC #Binance Record BTC Positioning Signals Potential Sentiment Peak

More importantly, we may have seen a sentiment extreme two weeks ago, as large speculators pushed net-long exposure in BTC/USD futures to a record high. Notably, positioning dipped slightly last week from that peak, suggesting bullish exposure may have risen faster than underlying futures prices.

With sentiment stretched, prices hovering near resistance, and altcoins still stuck around their cycle lows, there is a growing risk that this move is nearing exhaustion. If so, it raises the possibility that wave C is close to completion.

CME Bitcoin futures chart showing BTC/USD near resistance as CFTC net-long positioning hits record highs before easing, signalling a potential sentiment peak

Source: CME, TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis

Putting the prospects of a sentiment extreme and lagging altcoins to one side, the daily chart still shows an uptrend for Bitcoin. With 80k now within reach, it would be surprising not to see price at least test that level, with the potential for choppy, two-way volatility around it.

A small bearish divergence has formed on RSI (2) and RSI (14), although the latter has yet to reach overbought territory. That leaves the door open for a push above 80k before any meaningful pullback takes hold.

Unless we see clear signs of a swing high around 80k, bulls could target the weekly VPOC at 83,850 or the monthly VPOC at 89,434.

However, if this rally is indeed a false flag and marks the latter stages of a corrective wave C, the more compelling move may ultimately be to the downside