#HODLers2024

#Goodyear

#Notes

#QuarterPUSH

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📅 Crypto Year-End 2025 Outlook

🚀 Week momentum hints at possible last bullish leg before year-end

⚖️ Market still uncertain — could be final push or flip-flop consolidation

💎 HODLers from mid-2024 already witnessed one of the best crypto years

📘 Now it’s about whether the finale of 2025 brings fireworks 🎆 or fade-out 🕯️

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💰 Bitcoin (BTC)

💹 Current Price: $115k – 116k

🎯 Target Speculation: $150k – 158k

📈 Bullish Drivers: ETF inflows, macro easing, institutional adoption, halving impact

⚠️ Risks: high interest rates, whale sell-offs, regulation tightening

🔮 Probability of hitting $158k → ≈ 30–35 %

🧭 Base scenario → $130k – 145k

🧊 Bear case → $100k – 120k

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🦄 Ethereum (ETH)

💹 Current Price: $4,100 – 4,200

🎯 Target Speculation: $6,200

⚙️ Bullish Catalysts: ETH ETFs, staking yield, L2 growth, DeFi/NFT revival

⚠️ Risks: low on-chain activity, gas costs, ETH/BTC rotation

🔮 Probability of hitting $6,200 → ≈ 20–25 %

🧭 Base scenario → $4.5k – 5.5k

🧊 Bear case → $3.8k – 4.3k

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🌐 Macro + Market Mood

🏦 If interest rates drop → liquidity rush → risk assets pump

💵 Strong USD or inflation rebound → risk-off sentiment → sideways chop

⚡ Institutional flow still key — ETF demand & whale accumulation

🤖 Bots & AI-driven trading increasing volatility

🔁 Flip-flop price swings likely before any clean breakout

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🧩 Combined Probability

🟢 Both BTC > 150k & ETH > 6.2k → ≈ 10–15 % chance

🟡 Only BTC hits > 150k → ≈ 35 %

🟠 Only ETH hits > 6.2k → ≈ 25 %

🔴 Both miss targets (moderate gain or sideways) → ≈ 50 %

📖 Takeaway for HODLers

✨ You’ve already witnessed the golden mid-cycle wave 🌊

🧘‍♂️ Stay patient — 2025 end could still surprise

🧠 Note down your wins; plan exits & re-entries smartly

🐂 Either the “Final Push” of the bull or Flip-Flop before 2026 Mega Run

Analyse🫡