📉 【K姐快评】Jones exemption extended, oil prices drop, and the Strait is even more congested
The White House just confirmed: The Jones Act exemption has been extended to mid-August.
Foreign vessels can still operate along the US coast, causing oil prices to drop by another 2%👇
WTI at $97.24, Brent at $99.10.
But what’s really worth watching isn’t the oil price, it’s the "despair data" on Polymarket:
· 🌊 Probability of the Strait of Hormuz being navigable before the end of this month → only 3%
· 🗓️ Probability of restoring navigation by the end of May → 35%, a significant drop from before
📌 K姐's perspective:
The exemption is essentially "using logistics to buy time," temporarily suppressing domestic transportation costs in the US, but it doesn’t solve the global supply gap.
What’s more critical is that the market has already cast its vote: the Strait blockade isn’t a short-term black swan, but a mid-term norm.
The current drop in oil prices is more of an emotional pulse rather than a trend reversal. After the exemption expires in August, if the situation remains unresolved, the risk of a second spike is very high.
🧠 In a nutshell:
Vessels can navigate around, but oil is hard to buy. The exemption is a painkiller, not a cure.
Follow K姐 for daily updates and in-depth analysis. K姐 doesn't boast or paint pretty pictures, just shares real-world experiences that help you survive in the market!
#白宫 #霍尔木兹海峡
The White House just confirmed: The Jones Act exemption has been extended to mid-August.
Foreign vessels can still operate along the US coast, causing oil prices to drop by another 2%👇
WTI at $97.24, Brent at $99.10.
But what’s really worth watching isn’t the oil price, it’s the "despair data" on Polymarket:
· 🌊 Probability of the Strait of Hormuz being navigable before the end of this month → only 3%
· 🗓️ Probability of restoring navigation by the end of May → 35%, a significant drop from before
📌 K姐's perspective:
The exemption is essentially "using logistics to buy time," temporarily suppressing domestic transportation costs in the US, but it doesn’t solve the global supply gap.
What’s more critical is that the market has already cast its vote: the Strait blockade isn’t a short-term black swan, but a mid-term norm.
The current drop in oil prices is more of an emotional pulse rather than a trend reversal. After the exemption expires in August, if the situation remains unresolved, the risk of a second spike is very high.
🧠 In a nutshell:
Vessels can navigate around, but oil is hard to buy. The exemption is a painkiller, not a cure.
Follow K姐 for daily updates and in-depth analysis. K姐 doesn't boast or paint pretty pictures, just shares real-world experiences that help you survive in the market!
#白宫 #霍尔木兹海峡