This February, Pixels' founder Luke dropped a line that basically said Web3 games offer a better opportunity for the average Joe to get in on wealth creation compared to AI venture capital, since the early AI gains are mostly locked up with institutions, making it hard for the regular folks to get a piece. But Web3 games have been open to everyone from day one.
When I first saw that line, I just scrolled past it. I thought it was just a cheap plug for his project, not much substance there.
But over the past few days, I've been mulling over one thing: what’s my own entry logic for $PIXEL? To put it simply, it’s dropped 99%, so I’m betting on a bounce back. This logic doesn’t really tie to what Luke said; I never saw Pixels as a tool for 'letting the average person create wealth.' I’m just looking for a heavily oversold asset to rebound.
Both perspectives can coexist, but they dictate completely different holding strategies.
If I agree with Luke's framework, then the valuation basis for $PIXEL is as an access token to an open economic system. As long as the game is alive and the economic cycle is active, there will be a continuous demand for the token. At that point, whether the current price is expensive or not depends on the overall scale ceiling of the system.
If I use the oversold bounce framework, then $PIXEL is just a technical correction play. Once it rebounds to a certain level, I should consider exiting; it doesn't really matter whether this game succeeds or not.
My current issue is that I'm using two frameworks at the same time. When I hold, I convince myself with the long-term framework to stay in, and when the price drops, I comfort myself with the short-term framework to wait for a bounce. Combining these two is actually just self-deception.
Looking back at Luke's statement, I feel he was half right. Web3 games indeed have a lower entry barrier compared to early AI investments, but 'lower barrier' doesn’t equate to 'fair returns.' Just because you can get in doesn’t mean you can make money; the rights of ordinary people to participate are different from whether they can stabilize themselves in this system. I haven't figured this out yet, but I know that clarifying this issue before deciding on a holding strategy is much more honest than shifting frameworks while holding.