The link between Bitcoin and the dollar index abroad (the DXY) has caught the market's attention again, hitting a level not seen in almost four years. According to data from TradingView, the 30-day correlation between the two assets has plummeted to -0.90, the lowest since September 2022. Practically, this means that in the short term, when the dollar drops, Bitcoin tends to pump — and when the dollar rises, Bitcoin usually retraces.

This move just reinforces something that the market folks have known for a while: when the dollar weakens significantly, Bitcoin usually gains strength afterward. In some past cycles, drops of around 10% in the dollar index have been accompanied by surges of over 50% in BTC, showing how global liquidity impacts the price.

Today this relationship is quite 'mathematical'. A statistical indicator shows that around 81% of Bitcoin's recent fluctuations are linked to the dollar's movement. But some analysts caution: this might get a bit distorted because Bitcoin trades 24/7, while the DXY only operates on business days.

Recently, Bitcoin got close to $79K, but lost momentum just when the dollar climbed from 97.6 to 98.7 in a few days. This came alongside a more tense global scenario, with oil prices rising due to tensions in the Middle East and inflation still pressuring, which makes investors more cautious and reduces their risk appetite.

Even so, institutional money is still flowing into the market, mainly through Bitcoin ETFs in the US, which helps support the price even in a more stagnant environment.

Overall, there are folks like Anthony Scaramucci who think Bitcoin might take a few months to really kick off a solid rally again, maybe not until October or November, following the typical halving cycle.

In the end, the dollar remains a crucial piece in this game, but it's no longer the only factor. The Bitcoin market today is more mature, filled with big players, and more sensitive to a multitude of factors simultaneously. Still, when the dollar genuinely weakens, it tends to clear the way for Bitcoin to move more freely — and that's become quite clear again now.\u003cc-28/\u003e,\u003cc-30/\u003e,\u003cc-32/\u003e