Bitcoin vs Quantum Fears: Overblown or Underestimated?
The quantum computing threat to Bitcoin is back in focus but the real story isn’t what most think.
Yes, around 1.7 million BTC (Satoshi era coins) could be exposed if elliptic curve cryptography is broken.
At current prices?
That’s roughly $145B at risk.
Sounds catastrophic.
But zoom out.
Market data shows this level of selling pressure is absorbable.
During bull cycles:
Long term holders distribute 10K–30K BTC daily
→ Meaning Satoshi era supply equals just 2–3 months of normal profit-taking.
Even in bear markets:
Over 2.3M BTC moved in a single quarter
Monthly exchange inflows hit ~850K BTC
And derivatives?
They could absorb this notional volume in days.
So the real risk isn’t just selling pressure.
Proposals like freezing early coins (e.g. BIP-361) raise a deeper question:
Can Bitcoin stay immutable under pressure?
Is quantum a threat or just another narrative?