Nobody can honestly give a precise number for where the 🇺🇸 Nasdaq will end this year — it’s driven by rates, inflation, earnings, and shocks that no model can fully predict.

But here’s what Wall Street-style scenarios are broadly pointing to for 2026:

Base case: gradual upside as earnings stay solid → Nasdaq roughly +5% to +15% from current levels

Bull case: strong AI-driven earnings + easier policy → could push the index to new highs, roughly +20%–30% upside

Bear case: rate pressure or earnings slowdown → 10%–20% correction risk still on the table

Recent outlooks show this split clearly — some forecasts see Nasdaq climbing toward ~23,000–26,000 base range, while bullish scenarios stretch higher if momentum holds .

At the same time, analysts also warn that volatility is still very real in 2026, especially in tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq .